025
FXUS65 KBYZ 030111
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
711 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. CHANCE OF 0.25 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION
IS 40 TO 70 PERCENT, GREATEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
- DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS ANCHORED JUST TO OUR WEST (OVER WESTERN MT
& ID) LEAVING US UNDER A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW W/ ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS. TEMPS WARMED TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S TODAY, AND AS
RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER US, WE'LL SEE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S SATURDAY. FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIP IS LATE SUNDAY IN THE WEST. JKL
DISCUSSION
THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. SUNDAY HAS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR HIGHS ABOVE 80, WITH A 40-70% CHANCE FROM
YELLOWSTONE COUNTY EAST THROUGH CUSTER COUNTY.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A 30-60% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEST AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. SEE
THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOR MORE ON THIS NEXT SYSTEM. ARCHER
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY A
SPLITTING TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE THE MAIN FEATURE WITH THIS
SPLITTING TROUGH WILL BE A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES, THE NORTHERN PORTION, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, LOOK TO BE THE MAIN
PLAYER FOR OUR REGION. AHEAD OF AND AROUND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER AREAS AROUND AND WEST OF BILLINGS (30 TO 75 PERCENT CHANCE).
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, COOLER CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST (50 TO 85 PERCENT CHANCE, GREATEST OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS SOUTH AND WEST OF BILLINGS). AS FAR
AS POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GO WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE LATEST
PROBABILITY OF SEEING 0.25 INCHES OR MORE OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION
IS 40 TO 70 PERCENT, GREATEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
FOR 0.50 INCHES OR MORE OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION, IT IS 20 TO 50
PERCENT. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE GOES, SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO START OFF AROUND 10,000 FEET SUNDAY EVENING, DROPPING
TO AROUND 6,000 FEET ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LOCALLY LOWER SNOW
LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE MAJORITY
OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO FALL ONCE SNOW LEVELS ARE FALLING.
WITH THAT SAID, SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST IN THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY THAN
SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 40S AND 50S IN THE
WEST AND 50S AND 60S IN THE EAST. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. STP/ARENDS
AVIATION
NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS TO AVIATION ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT. ARENDS/JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/079 048/082 046/052 039/053 039/074 050/079 052/076
00/U 01/U 58/R 64/R 00/U 02/T 33/T
LVM 039/078 046/077 041/048 035/051 036/072 046/075 048/072
00/U 05/W 88/R 52/R 00/U 03/T 33/T
HDN 040/080 045/083 046/054 039/053 038/074 044/080 049/077
00/U 00/U 48/R 74/R 10/U 01/U 33/T
MLS 040/079 049/085 050/063 041/059 042/074 049/080 051/078
00/U 00/U 25/R 63/R 10/U 00/U 21/U
4BQ 039/076 047/082 051/062 042/055 042/070 049/078 051/076
00/U 00/U 15/R 74/R 10/B 00/U 12/T
BHK 036/075 044/080 048/069 040/062 040/069 045/076 047/076
00/U 00/N 13/T 62/R 10/B 00/U 11/U
SHR 036/077 042/081 044/053 035/049 035/069 041/075 045/072
00/U 01/U 38/R 85/R 21/B 01/U 24/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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