393
FXUS65 KBYZ 030818
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
218 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY TODAY INTO SUNDAY WITH MID ELEVATION SNOW MELT.
- PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO
TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. CHANCE OF 0.25 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION
IS 40 TO 80 PERCENT, GREATEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
- DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SUNDAY...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WE REMAIN SQUARELY UNDER A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE. WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE 80S ARE LIKELY BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPS SUNDAY
BEING JUST A TOUCH WARMER.
A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED AS WELL WITH HIGHS
REACHING 60F UP TO 7,000' AND LOWS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. AFTER
NOON ON SUNDAY PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO FILL INTO THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. WITH SNOW LEVELS AT 9,000'+ THIS SHOULD
ALL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. THESE RAIN SHOWERS MAY LOCALLY
HELP SPEED UP SOME SNOW MELT, HOWEVER, NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED
DUE TO ALL OF THE AREA WATERWAYS SITTING WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT
THIS TIME. WMR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
LATEST ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PROG A SPLITTING TROUGH IMPACTING THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE MAIN FEATURE WITH THIS SPLITTING
TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST US, WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION, A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, LOOK TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR
OUR REGION. AHEAD OF AND AROUND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE SUNDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT, SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER AREAS AROUND AND WEST OF BILLINGS (30 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE).
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, IT
LOOKS TO PHASE WITH THE LOW TO THE SOUTH, BRINGING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RANGE FROM
60 TO 90 PERCENT, GREATEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS SOUTH
AND WEST OF BILLINGS. WITH REGARDS TO POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE LATEST PROBABILITY OF SEEING 0.25
INCHES OR MORE OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS 40 TO 80 PERCENT,
GREATEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. FOR 0.50 INCHES OR MORE
OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION, IT HAS RISEN SLIGHTLY TO 20 TO 60
PERCENT. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO START OFF AROUND 10,000 FEET
SUNDAY EVENING, DROPPING TO BETWEEN 5,000 TO 6,000 FEET BY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
FALL MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY, WHEN SNOW LEVELS ARE FALLING.
WITH THAT SAID, SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST IN THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH EVEN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE FOR FAVORED FOOTHILL LOCATIONS (RED LODGE AND STORY).
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA BY
WEDNESDAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH
COOLER ON MONDAY THAN SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
THE 40S AND 50S IN THE WEST AND 50S AND 60S IN THE EAST. LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. ARENDS/STP
AVIATION
09Z DISCUSSION...
A WIND SHIFT FROM GENERALLY WESTERLY TO GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY
IS EXPECTED AROUND 21Z AT KLVM AND KBIL. ALL WINDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER 10KTS ALL DAY. VFR WILL PREVAIL
REGION-WIDE OVER THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 082 049/084 046/052 039/053 038/072 049/078 051/076
0/U 04/W 69/W 63/W 00/U 01/U 32/T
LVM 079 046/079 041/048 034/051 036/071 046/075 046/073
0/U 06/T 99/W 52/W 00/U 03/T 23/T
HDN 082 046/086 046/054 038/053 038/073 044/079 049/077
0/U 02/W 59/W 74/W 00/U 01/U 32/T
MLS 080 049/086 050/061 041/056 041/073 050/080 051/077
0/U 00/U 36/W 64/W 10/U 01/U 21/U
4BQ 079 049/084 051/060 041/053 041/071 049/077 051/074
0/U 00/U 15/W 85/W 10/B 00/U 11/U
BHK 077 044/083 048/065 039/056 040/069 046/076 047/074
0/U 00/N 14/W 64/W 10/B 00/U 11/U
SHR 078 043/083 044/053 034/049 035/068 041/074 045/073
0/U 02/W 38/W 86/W 11/B 01/U 23/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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