433
FXUS65 KBYZ 040041
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
641 PM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- COOL AND WET CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. CHANCE OF
0.25" OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS 40 TO 90 PERCENT (GREATEST
CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS).
- DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK (WED-SAT).
UPDATE
STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY & WARM
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, WHILE SPLITTING PACIFIC TROF NEAR
THE WEST COAST MOVES SLOWLY INLAND. EFFECTS FROM THIS TROF WILL
BEGIN TO BE FELT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN
OUR WEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME, IT WILL BE CLEAR
WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS. NO FORECAST
ISSUES TONIGHT. JKL
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S (WARMEST CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY).
A SPLITTING TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS
IMPACTS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S MPH. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AROUND AND WEST OF BILLINGS (15-60%). BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE FAR
EAST ARE ALSO FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING IN THE 20S TO 30 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE, BECOMING MODERATE TO HIGH ACROSS
THE AREA FOR ALL OF MONDAY (50-90%). THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WEST AND
SOUTH OF BILLINGS.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST, WITH 0.10"
TO MORE THAN 0.75" OF LIQUID PRECIP. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE
FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BAKER TO BILLINGS TO
JUDITH GAP. NORTH OF THIS LINE, THE CHANCE FOR 0.25" IS 10-30%.
GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP TOTALS ABOVE 0.50" EXISTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS (GREATER THAN 60%).
SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DROP BELOW 10,000 FEET MONDAY MORNING,
FALLING TO 5,000 TO 6,000 FEET MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. MOST OF THE FORECASTED PRECIPITATION WILL FALL MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE FOOTHILLS
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR
PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION TO SNOW. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE FOOTHILLS, THOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATIONS EXISTS FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS RED LODGE AND STORY.
IN THE MOUNTAINS, SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S
(WEST TO EAST).
MATOS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING/ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL
AT MID-WEEK OVER OUR REGION. A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THU-SAT, MAINLY OVE THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT THIS DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE IT WOULD BE ANYTHING SUBSTANTIAL. ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS HERE
AND THERE AT BEST. TEMPS WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WED, AND 70S TO AROUND 80 THU- SAT. BT
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. BREEZY S-SE WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FAR EAST
(INCLUDING KBHK) TOMORROW, GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KNOTS RANGE. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON (AFTER ~20Z). MATOS/JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050/082 046/051 037/051 037/070 048/079 050/077 051/080
01/U 48/R 64/R 00/U 02/W 31/U 12/T
LVM 042/075 041/047 033/048 034/069 045/076 046/075 047/077
04/T 78/R 62/O 00/U 03/T 32/W 13/T
HDN 044/084 046/053 036/052 037/070 044/080 049/079 049/082
00/U 37/R 74/R 10/U 01/U 42/W 22/T
MLS 048/085 050/060 038/054 039/069 048/080 051/077 051/081
00/U 24/R 64/R 10/B 01/U 31/U 11/U
4BQ 048/084 051/061 039/050 039/066 048/076 050/075 050/079
00/U 13/R 74/R 10/B 00/U 21/U 11/U
BHK 042/082 048/065 036/052 037/065 044/076 047/075 046/077
00/N 13/R 63/R 10/B 00/U 21/U 11/U
SHR 039/081 044/053 033/047 033/066 041/076 045/074 046/077
01/U 27/R 85/R 21/U 01/U 33/T 23/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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