398
FXUS65 KBYZ 060838
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
238 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH
RAIN AND SNOW GRADUALLY DECREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
- DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
RAIN AND SNOW WERE ONGOING OVER ALL BUT FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST
AREAS OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW HAVE FALLEN IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TOTALS DOWN ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS HAVE
RANGED FROM 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES, WITH LESSER TOTALS THE FARTHER
NORTH YOU GO. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT HAS RANGED TO AROUND AN INCH
AT COLE CREEK AND PLACER BASIN SNOTELS IN THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS, TO A HALF INCH IN THE BIGHORNS SO FAR. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE FOOTHILLS, AND A COUPLE
MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENT
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS GO THROUGH NOON TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE DURING THE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO TONIGHT. RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE 40S TO 50S TODAY, WARMING INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR MOST AREAS
TONIGHT, WITH UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STP
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BY THURSDAY MORNING ALL OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL BE UNDER A
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE
UPPER 70S / LOWER 80S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ROUGHLY FROM WESTERN WA
TO CENTRAL SK. ALONG THE WAY IT WILL PICK UP SOME LEFTOVER ENERGY
FROM THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE FAR FROM A WASHOUT, HOWEVER, REPEATED
ROUNDS OF THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.
SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED BY THE RIDGE
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S.
AS SUNDAY PROGRESSES, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN AND GET
FORCED EASTWARD THANKS TO A DIGGING TROUGH. WHILE MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON TIMING, INTENSITY, AND PLACEMENT, THEY DO ALL RESOLVE
A PRETTY NOTEWORTHY UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. PRECIPITATION COULD START OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY SINCE
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WMR
AVIATION
09Z DISCUSSION...
RA AND SN IS PIVOTING BACK INTO THE REGION AT THIS TIME. KSHR
CONTINUES OSCILLATING BETWEEN RA AND -SN. WITH PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND OTHER TERMINALS NEARBY HAVING
PREVIOUSLY GONE DOWN TO IFR/LIFR, IT WOULD BE WELL WITHIN THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AT KSHR AS
WELL. FURTHER NORTH AT KBIL, PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY STAY AS ALL
RA WITH CONDITIONS AT IFR AT WORST. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT
OF ALL MONTANA SITES AROUND 16Z BUT WILL LINGER AT KSHR.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIE DOWN AS WELL, ALL TAFS SHOW WINDS AT OR
BELOW 10KTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE TAF PERIOD. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049 036/073 050/080 050/076 052/086 056/087 058/083
4/R 10/U 03/W 42/T 20/U 12/T 33/T
LVM 047 034/069 045/075 044/075 047/081 053/081 052/076
3/O 11/U 03/W 32/T 21/U 14/T 34/W
HDN 051 035/074 044/080 048/078 050/086 052/089 055/084
6/R 10/U 02/W 52/T 20/U 12/T 33/T
MLS 054 041/075 051/082 051/076 050/087 057/090 058/085
5/R 10/U 02/W 43/W 00/U 11/U 22/W
4BQ 051 040/071 050/078 051/074 049/083 057/087 058/084
6/R 11/U 01/U 33/T 20/U 00/U 21/B
BHK 056 040/071 047/080 048/075 047/082 054/086 054/084
3/R 00/U 01/U 33/W 10/U 00/U 21/B
SHR 046 034/069 039/075 045/073 046/082 049/084 052/081
8/O 20/U 03/W 33/T 20/U 02/T 22/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR
ZONES 56-66-138-171.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR ZONE
67.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR
ZONES 198-199.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page