946
FXUS65 KBYZ 061913
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
113 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH
RAIN AND SNOW GRADUALLY DECREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
- DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
UPDATE
PRECIPITATION IS DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES ARE
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. THEREFORE, THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. ARENDS
DISCUSSION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
RAIN AND SNOW WERE ONGOING OVER ALL BUT FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST
AREAS OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW HAVE FALLEN IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. LIQUID
PRECIPITATION TOTALS DOWN ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS HAVE
RANGED FROM 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES, WITH LESSER TOTALS THE FARTHER
NORTH YOU GO. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT HAS RANGED TO AROUND AN INCH
AT COLE CREEK AND PLACER BASIN SNOTELS IN THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS, TO A HALF INCH IN THE BIGHORNS SO FAR. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE FOOTHILLS, AND A COUPLE
MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CURRENT
WINTER HIGHLIGHTS GO THROUGH NOON TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
DECREASE DURING THE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO TONIGHT. RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE 40S TO 50S TODAY, WARMING INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR
WEDNESDAY. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR MOST AREAS
TONIGHT, WITH UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STP
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BY THURSDAY MORNING ALL OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL BE UNDER A
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPS TO RETURN TO THE
UPPER 70S / LOWER 80S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ROUGHLY FROM WESTERN WA
TO CENTRAL SK. ALONG THE WAY IT WILL PICK UP SOME LEFTOVER ENERGY
FROM THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE FAR FROM A WASHOUT, HOWEVER, REPEATED
ROUNDS OF THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.
SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE DOMINATED BY THE RIDGE
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S.
AS SUNDAY PROGRESSES, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN AND GET
FORCED EASTWARD THANKS TO A DIGGING TROUGH. WHILE MODELS STILL
DISAGREE ON TIMING, INTENSITY, AND PLACEMENT, THEY DO ALL RESOLVE
A PRETTY NOTEWORTHY UPPER LEVEL LOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. PRECIPITATION COULD START OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY SINCE
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WMR
AVIATION
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION, LOW TO MID CLOUDS WILL
LINGER (CEILINGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500 AND 6000 FEET), LOWEST
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS). BY THIS EVENING, THE LOW TO MID
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO DECEASE. WITH THAT SAID, AREAS AROUND KLVM,
K6S0, AND K3HT COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE/RE-DEVELOP. ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA, FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ARENDS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051 037/073 051/080 051/078 053/086 058/087 059/085
1/E 00/U 03/W 41/U 00/U 12/W 33/W
LVM 049 035/071 046/075 044/077 048/082 053/082 053/077
1/B 01/U 04/W 31/U 01/U 14/T 34/W
HDN 052 036/074 044/080 049/080 051/086 053/090 057/087
2/W 00/U 02/W 42/W 00/U 12/W 33/W
MLS 055 042/074 051/082 052/078 053/089 057/090 058/088
1/E 00/U 02/W 32/W 00/U 11/B 32/W
4BQ 051 041/071 051/078 052/076 052/084 057/088 059/087
1/E 00/U 01/U 21/U 00/U 01/U 22/W
BHK 057 041/071 049/080 048/076 049/085 054/088 055/087
1/E 00/U 01/U 21/U 10/U 10/U 21/B
SHR 046 032/070 041/075 045/074 046/082 050/085 054/083
3/W 11/U 03/W 33/T 10/U 02/T 23/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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