216
FXUS65 KBYZ 062337
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
537 PM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CHANCES OF FOG EXIST FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FOOTHILLS.
- WARM CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO END THIS WEEK. EXPECT DIURNAL
RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SHOWERS HAVE GRADUALLY CLEARED THROUGH THE MORNING LEAVING LOW TO
MID STRATUS CLOUDS. AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO CLEAR, THE CHANCES
FOR FOG INCREASES (ABOUT 20%) ACROSS THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE FOOTHILLS. ANY FOG THAT
FORMS SHOULD CLEAR UP JUST AFTER SUNRISE. A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS EXISTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST MT,
OTHERWISE, THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PICK
UP FOR AREAS ALONG THE HIGHWAYS 212 AND 310 BEGINNING AFTER
SUNRISE WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXPECTED, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO
THE EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOW 40S WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. TS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
WARM, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
DURING THIS TIME, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND
UPPER 70S AND 80S SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. SOME AREAS ALONG THE RIVER
VALLEYS OF EASTERN MONTANA COULD ALSO SEE 90 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY (50 TO 75 PERCENT, GREATEST AROUND MILES CITY IN THE
YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY). WITH TEMPERATURES THIS WARM, MID-
ELEVATION SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THIS WILL BRING
DIURNAL RISES TO RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT MAINLY
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. THOSE WITH PROPERTY OR RECREATION PLANS ON
WATERWAYS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE INCREASED FLOWS.
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WHILE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING GENERALLY DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TO END THIS WEEK, THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS.
AHEAD OF THE RIDGE AXIS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE (15 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE). THERE IS NOT
MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OR FORCING FOR THIS ACTIVITY THOUGH, SO
NO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10,000 FEET DURING THIS TIME, SO RAIN
ON SNOW WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED, BUT THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST
REMAINS RELATIVELY LIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNS SUNDAY BEHIND THE RIDGE AXIS AS A DISTURBANCE RIDES THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA (15 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE). THIS IS A PATTERN FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS TIME OF
YEAR, BUT THIS DEPENDS ON WHETHER GULF MOISTURE CAN MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA. RIGHT NOW, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. EITHER WAY, THIS WILL BE A PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE
ON GOING FORWARD.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN, BUT IT WILL AT LEAST BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE
REGION AS IT MOVES THOUGH THE REGION SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. ARENDS
AVIATION
LOW TO MID CLOUD COVERAGE WILL DECREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MVFR CEILINGS COULD RE-DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY AROUND KSHR, KLVM,
K6S0, AND K3HT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MATOS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/073 051/080 051/078 053/086 058/087 059/085 053/074
10/U 03/W 41/U 00/U 12/W 33/W 44/T
LVM 035/071 046/075 044/077 048/082 053/082 053/077 045/067
11/U 04/W 31/U 01/U 14/T 34/W 46/T
HDN 036/074 044/080 049/080 051/086 053/090 057/087 051/077
10/U 02/W 42/W 00/U 12/W 33/W 44/W
MLS 042/074 051/082 052/078 053/089 057/090 058/088 055/079
10/U 02/W 32/W 00/U 11/B 32/W 33/W
4BQ 041/071 051/078 052/076 052/084 057/088 059/087 054/080
10/U 01/U 21/U 00/U 01/U 22/W 22/W
BHK 041/071 049/080 048/076 049/085 054/088 055/087 053/080
10/U 01/U 21/U 10/U 10/U 21/B 32/W
SHR 032/070 041/075 045/074 046/082 050/085 054/083 048/076
21/U 03/W 33/T 10/U 02/T 23/W 34/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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