757
FXUS65 KBYZ 071928
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
128 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND EXTENDS INTO THE WEEKEND. RECORD TEMPS ARE
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES.
- EXPECT RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS
SUNDAY AND INCREASES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- COOLER TEMPS AND CLOUDY/RAINY CONDITIONS EXPECT BY MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE ABOVE AVERAGE 500 MB HEIGHTS LEADING
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S F INCREASING INTO THE HIGH
70S TO LOW 80S F FOR MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WAVE APPEARS
TO BE WEAK AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S F. CAPE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 500 J/KG WITH LIMITED SHEAR. THESE
FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING WIND GUSTS INTO THE 50S MPH. TORGERSON
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MODELS AGREE ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING OUR
WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
HOWEVER, LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL BE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW
BY SUNDAY BACKING OUR MID LEVEL WINDS TO THE SW AND BRINGING
PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THUS, THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT MODELS ARE IN POOR
AGREEMENT WITH THE DETAILS AND HOW ORGANIZED THE UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL CYCLONIC FLOW CERTAINLY LEADS US TO
BELIEVE WE WILL SEE WET AND COOLER CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
SO FOR HIGHS, EXPECT 80S TO NEAR 90 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE
POSSIBILITY OF 90 DEGREES IS HIGHEST ALONG AND NEAR RIVER VALLEYS
(50-75% CHANCE) ON SUNDAY. RECORD HIGHS FOR BILLINGS ARE 88
DEGREES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WHICH WE COULD APPROACH. TEMPS
MAY DROP TO THE 50S AND EVEN UPPER 40S BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS
CLOUDY/RAINY CONDITIONS TAKE OVER WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
DUE TO THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS, SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE. THIS WILL PRODUCE RISING WATER LEVELS ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT MAINLY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. THOSE
WITH PROPERTY OR RECREATION PLANS ON WATERWAYS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
BE CAUTIOUS. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, INCREASED
FLOWS CAN STILL BE DANGEROUS DUE TO BANK EROSION, DEBRIS AND THE
COLD WATER. BT
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS GUSTING
TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD (30%) IMPACT SOUTHEAST MONTANA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050/079 050/080 054/087 059/085 056/083 051/069 046/058
02/T 41/U 00/U 12/W 33/W 45/W 66/T
LVM 045/075 044/077 049/083 053/078 049/073 044/061 040/053
03/T 21/U 01/N 24/T 44/T 56/W 67/W
HDN 045/080 049/081 050/088 055/086 054/085 050/072 046/060
02/T 31/U 00/U 12/W 44/W 44/W 66/T
MLS 050/081 050/081 054/089 057/089 056/085 053/073 050/064
01/U 21/U 10/U 11/B 32/W 43/W 55/W
4BQ 050/078 051/078 054/087 057/087 058/086 053/075 048/064
00/U 11/U 00/U 01/U 22/W 33/W 44/W
BHK 048/080 048/079 051/087 055/089 054/086 051/076 046/066
01/U 21/U 10/U 00/U 21/B 32/W 44/W
SHR 042/075 046/076 046/084 050/084 052/083 047/072 041/060
01/U 23/W 00/U 02/T 23/W 34/T 56/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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