894
FXUS65 KBYZ 271407
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
807 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MAINLY WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (30-70% POP); A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS.
- DRIER AND WARMER THURSDAY THOUGH THE WEEKEND; TEMPS PUSHING 80
DEGREES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY; 90F IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY.
- A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A COOLING TREND IS POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS/FOG REMAINING IN SHERIDAN
COUNTY AND THE FAR EAST, BUT THEY ARE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE W/
THE ONSET OF MIXING. NOT MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW BUT EXPECT
DEVELOPMENT BY 18-19Z. HAVE MADE SOME POPS/WX ADJUSTMENTS BUT
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. JKL
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF SE MT. SOME WEAK PERTURBATIONS WERE
WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST AND SPILLING OVER
INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE. A POCKET OF LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERED WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
BILLINGS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, DRIFTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
LOOK FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF OUR CWA THIS MORNING.
AS UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH ROUNDS THE RIDGE IT WILL DROP DOWN
ACROSS OUR REGION STARTING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND PHASES
WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE EVENING.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS & T-STORMS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING. BULK SHEAR IS WEAK, SO STORMS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN NON-
SEVERE. HOWEVER, WITH MUCAPE UP TO 750 J/KG AND PWAT VALUES AROUND
0.80 INCHES, THERE COULD BE A FEW HEAVY RAINERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
SMALL HAIL.
UPSLOPE FLOW AND THE INFLUENCE OF PHASING WITH A LOBE OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL KEEP SOME LIFT
GOING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND SCATTERED COVERAGE
CLOSER TO THE BIGHORNS LINGERING WEDNESDAY BEFORE FINALLY EXITING
TO THE SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S FAR EAST TO LOWER-MID 70S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. BT
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. MODELS HINT AT AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF
THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY, BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO EASTERN MT. OTHERWISE, MODELS ARE IN
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING
NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S AND
80S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
YEAR MAY BE IN STORE SUNDAY, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING 80S
TO 90F.
THE LATEST CLUSTER ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE RIDGE HOLDING INTO MONDAY,
BEFORE AN UPPER LOW OR TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
DETAILS AND CERTAINTY REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME HOWEVER.
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AROUND TO ABOVE
FREEZING BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT, EXPECT RIVER AND
STREAM RISES. MATOS
AVIATION
AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS W/ MVFR-IFR WILL IMPACT KSHR AND NEAR THE
DAKOTAS BORDER (I.E. KBHK TO K97M) THRU 15-16Z. A DISTURBANCE
TRACKING FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS & T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS
AT KLVM, KBIL & KSHR. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF MVFR IN HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 053/077 052/083 059/078 052/084 057/089 057/074
4/T 40/B 00/U 22/W 00/U 01/U 36/T
LVM 074 048/075 048/082 053/076 049/083 055/086 052/068
5/T 20/U 01/U 21/U 00/U 02/T 47/T
HDN 076 053/077 049/083 056/077 049/084 055/090 057/077
3/T 41/B 00/U 22/W 00/U 01/U 35/T
MLS 076 053/077 050/081 055/079 050/082 055/090 058/082
1/U 20/U 00/U 12/W 00/U 00/U 33/W
4BQ 073 051/073 048/079 054/077 050/080 053/088 059/082
0/B 21/B 00/U 01/U 00/U 00/U 22/T
BHK 069 046/072 044/076 048/077 047/077 049/084 054/080
0/B 10/U 00/U 01/U 00/U 00/U 22/W
SHR 073 050/072 046/079 052/075 047/079 051/087 054/077
3/T 33/T 00/U 12/W 10/U 01/U 25/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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