760
FXUS65 KBYZ 280815
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
215 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE BIGHORNS REGION TODAY.
- DRIER AND WARMER THURSDAY THOUGH THE WEEKEND; TEMPS PUSHING 80
DEGREES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY; 90F IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY.
- CONFIDENCE GROWING FOR A COOLER AND VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
NEXT WEEK, STARTING WITH A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY; SEVERE
T-STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY; SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (INCLUDING
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW) POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHERLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVER OUR REGION,
COMPLEMENTS OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS. A LOBE OF VORTICITY
WAS SWINGING THROUGH THIS FLOW ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA OVERNIGHT
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH SOUTH BY SUNRISE, BUT LOOK FOR LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT AND THE BIGHORNS REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. THERE MAY BE LOCALIZED FOG IN OUR EAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S.
PERIOD OF RIDGING WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST (FINALLY) WILL YIELD SOME
MODEST DOWNSLOPE WARMING, PUSHING TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MT AND
SOUTHERN CANADA, PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR WESTERN CWA BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDER
(10-20%) FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT
MUCH MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY WITH THIS SHORTWAVE, THUS MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPOTTY. BT
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
FOR FRIDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRIEFLY DISRUPT RIDGING
BRINGING A SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION (10-30%, MAINLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS). RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
ENSEMBLES BRING IN A UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC LOW LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PULL IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
ALLOWING FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS INCREASED
INSTABILITY. TIMING STILL NEEDS TO BE WORKED OUT, BUT IF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS EARLIER IN THE EVENING, THERE IS AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. REGARDLESS, THERE ARE
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES (40-70%) OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION FOR
SOUTH-CENTRAL MT AND SHERIDAN CO, WY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOUTHEAST MT HAS ABOUT A 20-40% CHANCE OF SEEING AN
INCH FOR THIS SAME TIME FRAME. ABOUT A 20-40% CHANCE EXISTS FOR AT
LEAST 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
BEARTOOTHS AND BIGHORNS DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 8-9,000 FT WHICH COULD IMPACT PORTIONS
OF THE BEARTOOTH HIGHWAY. KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST AS MORE
DETAILS COME OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S BY
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF INTO THE LOW 70S TO UPPER 50S
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TS
AVIATION
SHOWERS (WITH LOCAL MVFR) WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS THE BIGHORNS REGION AND SE
MT. KSHR THE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WILL
BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
LINGER OVER THIS AREA THROUGH THE DAY...OTHERWISE VFR WILL
PREVAIL. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 049/081 057/079 053/086 059/089 055/065 049/059
1/B 00/U 11/U 00/U 13/T 67/W 88/W
LVM 073 047/081 053/078 050/086 057/084 050/062 043/056
1/U 02/T 21/U 00/U 14/T 68/T 88/T
HDN 075 047/081 053/079 049/086 057/090 055/068 048/062
3/W 00/U 11/U 00/U 12/T 67/W 88/W
MLS 075 047/080 052/082 051/084 058/093 057/071 049/063
2/W 00/U 01/U 00/U 01/U 55/W 76/W
4BQ 069 045/076 050/079 051/082 057/090 057/070 049/062
3/W 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 35/W 75/W
BHK 069 042/075 045/079 048/080 052/086 054/072 046/062
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 44/W 74/W
SHR 069 043/076 051/076 048/080 053/088 052/067 044/060
4/T 10/U 01/U 00/U 02/T 47/T 88/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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