096
FXUS65 KBYZ 282103
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
303 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- DRIER AND WARMER THURSDAY THOUGH THE WEEKEND; TEMPS PUSHING 80
DEGREES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY; 90F IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY.
MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON A COOLER AND ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW) POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW AND ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. NEAR THE
DAKOTA BORDER, LOCALIZED FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE (20%) LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY THURSDAY UNDER
BRIEF RIDGING. THEN, A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA WILL
PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION, BRINGING A SMALL (10-20%)
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO LOCATIONS WEST OF BILLINGS THURSDAY
EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND 50S THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. WILDFIRE SMOKE
ALOFT MAY BRING HAZY SKIES THURSDAY. ARCHER
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A MOSTLY BENIGN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING PASSING CLOUDS AND A
LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FRIDAY (5 TO 25 PERCENT
CHANCE, GREATEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS). THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH
WILL ALSO TEMPORARILY DELAY THE ONSET OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ALOFT, SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
AND BRING HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. WITH THIS, HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND
80S TO POTENTIALLY LOWER 90S SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING 90 DEGREES IS OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN MONTANA AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING (50 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE). WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS WARM, LOOK FOR MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT TO INCREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELED SNOW TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THE SNOW PACK HAS WARMED AND IS "READY" TO MELT OUT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO DIURNAL RISES IN STREAMS AND RIVERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
SO STAY WATER AWARE IF YOU HAVE PROPERTY OR RECREATION PLANS ON
AREA WATERWAYS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
BY LATER SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH,
ALONG WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN,
WILL USHER IN A PATTERN CHANGE TO MUCH COOLER AND WETTER FOR NEXT
WEEK. WITH THIS, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS INCLUDES THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND THEN MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO MID-
WEEK. WHILE A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DUE TO THE MULTIPLE INTERACTING
FEATURES, THE CHANCE OF SEEING RAIN IS HIGH. IN FACT, THE CHANCE
OF SEEING AT LEAST A HALF INCH OR MORE OR PRECIPITATION IS HIGH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA (65 TO 95 PERCENT CHANCE, GREATEST OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS). WITH AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION, EVEN HIGH END AMOUNTS AROUND 2 OR MORE
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE ACHIEVED THROUGH THIS PROLONGED
EVENT (20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTH- CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING). WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVING IN, NOT ALL OF THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
FALL AS RAIN AS WELL. WHILE SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO START OUT AROUND
11,000 TO 12,000 FEET SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SNOW LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY LOOK TO DROP AROUND 8,000 TO 9,500 FEET. THIS
WOULD MEAN SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS,
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE BEARTOOTH HIGHWAY. ARENDS
AVIATION
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE
EAST, INCLUDING KBHK, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN
THURSDAY MORNING AND MAY REDUCE SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048/081 056/079 053/086 059/089 055/063 046/058 045/060
00/U 11/U 00/U 03/T 68/W 88/W 77/W
LVM 046/081 053/077 049/086 056/084 050/061 042/055 040/057
01/U 11/U 00/U 15/T 79/T 98/W 88/T
HDN 047/080 053/079 049/086 056/089 055/067 046/059 044/061
00/U 11/U 00/U 02/T 67/W 88/W 76/W
MLS 047/079 051/082 052/083 058/092 059/074 049/061 045/061
00/U 01/U 00/U 01/U 56/T 87/W 55/W
4BQ 045/075 050/079 052/081 056/089 059/074 048/060 045/060
00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 34/T 86/W 55/W
BHK 042/074 045/081 049/081 052/086 055/073 046/061 041/061
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 34/T 76/W 44/W
SHR 043/076 051/074 048/079 052/087 052/067 043/058 040/062
10/U 02/W 10/U 02/T 47/T 88/W 77/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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