716
FXUS65 KBYZ 290820
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
220 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME HAZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY DUE TO
CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE.
- DRIER AND WARMER TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND; TEMPS PUSHING 80
DEGREES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY; 90F IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY.
MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON A COOLER AND ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION (AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW) POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
LOCALIZED FOG/LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE ALONG THE DAKOTA BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINOR AND BRIEF.
OTHERWISE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER OUR
REGION TODAY. THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTHERN MONTANA LATE
TODAY. THIS WILL PUSH SOME MODEST PACIFIC MOISTURE AND A WEAK
FRONT INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES BY EVENING PRODUCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDER, MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND INDUCE SOME WEAK LIFT
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY, GIVING US A GLANCING BLOW. WHILE SOME
VIRGA OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MONTANA
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, IT SEEMS THE WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL COUNTER THE LIFT AND MOISTURE, THUS LIMITING MUCH IF ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. THAT SAID, THE
GFS OPERATIONAL SOLUTION DROPS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AGGRESSIVELY
SOUTH FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA. THIS COULD RESULT IN A 15-30%
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR EASTERN PLAINS...BUT FOR NOW
THIS LOOKS LIKE AN OUTLIER, SO WILL KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.
HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. WILDFIRE
SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADA MAY PRODUCE A HINT OF HAZY SKIES TODAY.
BT
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FOR THE WEEKEND, RIDGING IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
ENSEMBLES BRING TROUGHING AND ENERGY FROM THE WEST AND FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, SIGNALING UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL WAVE LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 12,000 FT, DROPPING TO AROUND 8-9,000 FT
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THIS, THERE WOULD BE
CONCERN FOR RAIN ON SNOW WITH THE INITIAL PART OF THIS SYSTEM, SO
THAT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THAT TIME APPROACHES. AS FAR
AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS, ENSEMBLES STILL HAVE A A LOT OF SPREAD. THE
CHANCES OF AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ABOUT
50-80% IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND SHERIDAN CO, WY WITH A 20-40%
CHANCE FOR SOUTHEAST MT. THERE IS ALSO A 30-50% CHANCE MAINLY FOR
FOOTHILLS ALONG THE BEARTOOTH AND BIGHORN MTNS FOR THIS SAME
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR TO WATCH
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN
THE INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND RESULTING INSTABILITY. AS
FAR AS SNOWFALL, THERE IS ABOUT A 40-60% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 6
INCHES OF SNOW TUES- WED FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS, WITH ABOUT
20-40% CHANCE FOR THE BIGHORNS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S FOR
THE WEEKEND, COOLING TO THE 60S AND 70S MONDAY, WITH 50S AND 60S
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF WARM TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED AND INCREASED CHANCES OF RAINFALL, RISES ON STREAMS AND
SMALL RIVERS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. TS
AVIATION
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR
FAR EASTERN MT (KBHK). WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN
TODAY AND MAY REDUCE SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY. TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 079 057/080 052/086 060/088 055/062 047/056 045/062
0/U 01/U 00/U 03/T 78/W 98/W 66/W
LVM 080 053/079 049/086 057/084 050/059 042/053 040/061
1/U 11/U 00/U 06/T 89/T 99/W 76/T
HDN 079 052/081 050/086 057/090 055/065 047/056 044/063
0/U 01/H 00/U 02/T 68/W 98/W 66/W
MLS 078 049/082 052/085 059/092 057/070 049/058 045/064
0/U 01/U 00/U 01/U 66/T 87/W 54/W
4BQ 074 049/080 052/081 057/091 057/071 049/055 044/060
0/U 00/H 00/U 01/U 45/T 96/W 55/W
BHK 073 044/080 049/080 052/087 054/072 045/058 041/061
0/U 00/H 00/U 00/U 45/T 86/W 44/W
SHR 075 050/075 048/081 053/088 052/066 042/053 039/060
0/U 01/H 10/U 02/T 58/T 98/W 77/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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