944
FXUS65 KBYZ 292309
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
509 PM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TURNING WARM THIS WEEK WITH MANY LOCATIONS IN THE 90S BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. INCREASED RISK OF HEAT IMPACTS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
- CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL HELP CONFINE ISOLATED CONVECTION TO AREAS NEAR THE
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SE MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE FORECAS AREA. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL, BUT THE SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF MONTANA TODAY.
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA ALOFT WITH MUCH DRIER AIR (PWATS
~0.5IN) TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO START THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY WILL TREND WARMER,
INTO THE MID 80S MOST AREAS. CHAMBERS
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT RIDGING WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN STORE THIS WEEK. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90SF WITH THE WARMEST DAYS BEING
TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY. THE LATEST HEAT RISK FORECAST
INDICATES MODERATE (2/4) IMPACTS ON TUESDAY AND MODERATE TO HIGH
IMPACTS (2/4 TO 3/4) ON WEDNESDAY, AND MINOR TO MODERATE (1/4 TO
2/4) ON THURSDAY. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS WE ARE STILL A FEW
DAYS AWAY, BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE FORECAST
AND PLAN ACTIVITIES ACCORDINGLY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS WHERE THE
PROBABILITY FOR 100F OR GREATER TEMPS IS 25-60%. THE GREATEST
PROBABILITIES ARE CURRENTLY SHOWN TO BE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND
IN NORTHERN ROSEBUD AND CUSTER COUNTIES.
ALONG WITH THE WARMTH, A PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DEPICTED BY
MODELS MOVING INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE THE STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF
STORMS, CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FOREAST IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THIS WEEK WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. IN SIMILAR
LOCATIONS TO THE CHANCE FOR 100F, THERE IS A 25-70% CHANCE OF
OVERNIGHT TEMPS BEING GREATER THAN 70F, WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ENSEMBLES ARE IN MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL
HELP PUSH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST, THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
IS SHOWN TO BRING TEMPERATURES BACK AROUND AVERAGE (80SF) AND AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
MATOS
AVIATION
00Z DISCUSSION...
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DIE DOWN TO UNDER 10KTS BY 03Z
ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD REGION-WIDE. BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE NE (20KTS) ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) THAT KMLS AND KBHK COULD SEE A
BRIEF SHOWER BEFORE 02Z.
WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055/085 058/093 063/095 064/090 063/084 059/081 058/087
00/U 00/U 11/B 22/T 44/T 33/T 22/T
LVM 046/085 050/092 055/090 056/086 054/079 051/078 051/085
00/U 01/U 22/T 24/T 55/T 44/T 32/T
HDN 052/086 055/095 061/097 064/091 063/086 058/083 056/087
00/U 00/U 11/B 22/T 54/T 43/T 32/T
MLS 054/085 057/095 064/098 068/096 067/087 061/084 059/088
00/U 00/U 10/U 21/B 53/T 33/T 22/T
4BQ 055/083 056/093 063/095 068/093 066/085 060/081 059/085
10/U 00/U 10/U 21/B 53/T 32/T 22/T
BHK 051/082 053/090 059/094 064/093 063/086 057/081 054/085
00/U 00/U 10/U 21/B 53/T 33/T 22/T
SHR 048/083 052/092 058/093 060/088 058/081 053/079 051/084
30/U 01/U 11/U 23/T 55/T 34/T 22/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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