238
FXUS65 KBYZ 030806
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
206 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 90S. THEN
A COOLING TREND BACK TO NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- WET AND ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS LATE DAY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMES PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWEST TODAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER OUR REGION SLIDES EAST. THIS RESULTS IN A
GOOD FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING INTO OUR AREA COMBINING
WITH A MONSOONAL FLOW FROM THE SOUTH STILL AIMING AT OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES. SOME ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM A UPPER TROUGH OVER
UTAH WILL HELP ENHANCE LIFT AS WILL SURFACE TROUGH ALONG GHE MT/DK
BORDER. THUS, BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS TODAY IS IN OUR
FAR EAST WHERE MUCAPE VALUES WILL BE UP AROUND 1000 J/KG. SHEAR IS
MODEST IN OUR AREA SO LARGE HAIL IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT THREAT UNTIL
STORMS GET INTO THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER, OUR PWAT VALUES WILL BE WELL
OVER AN INCH (1.00-1.30) IN OUR EASTERN SECTIONS, SO VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH SOME STORMS. STORMS WILL MOVE
EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION MAY
LINGER IN OUR EAST IN THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY MORNING.
BY FRIDAY (FOURTH OF JULY), AN UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED INTO
THE PACIFIC NW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL HAVE US UNDER
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. WHILE THE TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TOWARD
MONTANA, A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH
WILL TRACK OVER OUR REGION BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (40-70%). TRYING TO TIME THESE SHORT WAVES AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AT ANY GIVEN TIME WILL BE DIFFICULT. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A WET FRIDAY EVENING FOR MANY LOCATIONS. SO THOSE
WITH PLANS TO VIEW FIREWORKS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY AND KEEP AN
EYE ON THE FORECAST. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SEVERE STORMS FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT STILL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S. PROBABILITIES FOR A HIGH
TEMPERATURE OVER 100 F WILL BE LIMITED TO LOCATIONS NEAR MILES
CITY ALONG THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER WHERE CHANCES TOP OUT AROUND 40%.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 70S WEST TO LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. BT
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ENSEMBLES DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MT SATURDAY,
ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30 KTS AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-800 J/KG,
A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
MODERATE, PUTTING PWATS JUST UNDER AND INCH AND SLIGHTLY
DECREASING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. INTO SUNDAY AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN US WILL
ALLOW FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY INCREASE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE WEEKEND, INCREASING TO THE 80S AND
LOW 90S BY MID WEEK. TS
AVIATION
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING AROUND
NOON TODAY AND TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS. BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD ALSO CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORM.
TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 092 064/081 057/080 055/081 058/087 060/092 063/094
2/T 35/T 65/T 31/U 11/U 11/U 10/U
LVM 088 053/076 049/076 047/081 050/087 052/090 055/093
4/T 38/T 66/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
HDN 094 063/082 056/083 054/083 055/089 057/092 060/095
2/T 45/T 55/T 41/U 11/U 11/U 10/U
MLS 097 068/084 061/082 056/081 058/088 061/091 063/095
1/B 43/T 44/T 51/B 21/U 11/U 10/U
4BQ 094 065/079 060/082 057/079 059/087 061/089 063/092
2/T 54/T 43/T 51/U 21/U 11/U 10/U
BHK 095 063/081 057/078 054/078 056/083 056/085 058/089
1/B 43/T 43/T 62/T 22/T 21/U 10/U
SHR 090 058/078 052/082 051/081 052/087 054/090 057/091
3/T 66/T 44/T 31/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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