493
FXUS65 KBYZ 020817
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
217 AM MDT SAT AUG 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING, A
FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH STORMS FROM BILLINGS EASTWARD.
- THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
PROGGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEEPENING, ALBEIT WEAK, WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE RESULT IS PWATS ARE GRADUALLY
DECREASING, ESPECIALLY IN OUR WESTERN ZONES. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
HELICITY ARE ALSO DECREASING COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW AND LITTLE UPPER JET SUPPORT ACROSS OUR
REGION. SO WHILE WE ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS TRACKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR CWA AGAIN TODAY,
THE CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS HAS DIMINISHED RELATIVE TO RECENT
WEEKS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY STRONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL,
BUT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS ARE NOT LIKELY, LIMITING THE RISK OF ANY
LARGE HAIL. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LOCAL GUSTS 50 TO 60
MPH WITH A STRONG CELL OR TWO...AND ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE IN OUR EAST WHERE PWATS ARE STILL APPROACHING 1.00
INCHES.
BOTTOM-LINE...LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO INITIATE IN OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS AGAIN LATE TODAY AS A WEAK BUT NOTABLE SHORT WAVE TRACKS
OVER OUR AREA. STORMS MAY BE SLOW MOVING AGAIN AND MAY LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS. STORMS SHOULD BE OF
GARDEN-VARIETY WITH LITTLE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.
STORMS SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE WITH CLEARING AND QUIET
CONDITIONS FILLING IN BEHIND. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S TODAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
BT
SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WE WILL HAVE A CONTINUED DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNDER A W/SW FLOW. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIAL AMOUNTS GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD EARLY
IN THE WEEK AS DRIER DOWNSLOPE WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL OVER OUR
REGION AND THE MOST LIKELY TRACK OF SHORT WAVES IS FURTHER NORTH.
A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY/EARLY
TUESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS A DRY
TRACK FOR OUR REGION, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINING
NORTH NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, THERE ARE SIGNS OF A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN EMERGING AS ENERGY CUTS INTO THE NORMAL RIDGE AND RESULTS
IN A COOLER REGIME WITH CYCLONIC MOTION ALOFT. HOWEVER, CLUSTER
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE. STAY TUNED.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL, IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S,
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BT/ARCHER
AVIATION
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF SOME LOW CLOUDS OR PATCHY FOG OVER THE
EAST, INCLUDING NEAR KBHK AND K97M, UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE SMALL HAIL, STRONG AND
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, AND HEAVY RAIN. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO FLIGHT
CATEGORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS. BT/ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 061/088 060/090 060/086 059/090 061/090 062/082
2/T 31/U 11/U 21/U 10/U 01/B 12/T
LVM 085 051/085 051/085 051/082 050/088 053/088 053/078
3/T 31/U 12/T 31/U 11/U 11/B 23/T
HDN 090 059/088 057/093 059/087 057/092 059/092 061/084
2/W 31/U 11/U 21/U 11/U 10/B 12/W
MLS 090 063/088 061/092 065/088 060/090 063/092 063/085
2/T 32/T 11/U 33/T 21/U 11/B 22/T
4BQ 089 063/085 061/090 064/087 061/090 063/093 064/085
1/U 32/T 10/U 22/T 11/U 11/U 11/B
BHK 085 059/084 058/087 060/086 057/087 060/089 061/083
3/T 43/T 21/U 24/T 31/U 21/U 22/T
SHR 087 055/083 055/089 057/087 055/090 058/092 058/084
2/T 33/T 11/U 11/U 11/U 10/U 12/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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