738
FXUS65 KBYZ 021923
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
123 PM MDT SAT AUG 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A
FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT WITH
STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS FROM
BILLINGS EASTWARD.
- THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DECREASE
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER PRETTY TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND
SCATTERED SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTEND
WITH. DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST,
PARTICULARLY IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. DEW POINTS
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS AND THIS MORNING DEW POINTS
IN THE 20S AND 30S WERE COMMON ACROSS AREA MOUNTAINS. STILL
HOLDING SOME MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS MORNING, BUT WINDS
ALREADY SWITCHING TO THE WEST LATE MORNING FROM BILLINGS WEST.
THIS LOWER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY MEANS GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS AGAIN TODAY, THOUGH HREF AND NCAR NEURAL
NET FORECASTS ARE NOT VERY BULLISH ON SEVERE GUST POTENTIAL.
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS DIMINISHED WITH THE LOWER PWATS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT VALUES AROUND AN INCH TO
THE EAST OF BILLINGS COULD STILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH A MODEST PROBABILITY FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE REMINGTON
BURN SCAR HAD A FLASH FLOOD WARNING ISSUED LAST NIGHT, AND COULD
SEE ONE AGAIN TONIGHT IF THE HREF STORM TRACKS AND CLUSTERING ARE
ACCURATE. FOR THE ELK AND ROBERTSON DRAW BURN SCARS THE DRIER AIR
IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THOSE
FLASH FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS, BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT WITH
STORM MOTIONS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 10 MPH AT TIMES. OVERALL THE
EVOLUTION OF STORMS LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF I-90 IN THE WEST, AND
ALONG/SOUTH OF US-212 IN THE EAST. TIMING IS MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON
WEST, EARLY EVENING CENTRAL, AND INTO THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FOR THE EAST.
WEAK UPPER TROF SLIDES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
ENHANCING DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. THIS
DRYING WILL REALLY PUT A DAMPER ON CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING NOTHING AT ALL TOMORROW. GIVEN
THE RECENT RAINFALL AND ELEVATED SOIL MOISTURES ACROSS THE AREA
THAT MIGHT BE A LITTLE OVERDONE BUT CERTAINLY LOOKS LESS ACTIVE
THAN THE PAST WEEK HAS BEEN.
WITH THE FLAT FLOW ALOFT COMING OFF THE PACIFIC, TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. CHAMBERS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY NIGHT A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES FROM IDAHO ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND INTO CANADA, PROVIDING
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK SOME SYNOPTIC (LARGE SCALE) CHANGES BEGIN
TO TAKE HOLD AS THE SEMI-PERMANENT SUMMER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THEN SAGS SOUTH, OPENING THE DOOR FOR
TROFFING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST AND A STORM SYSTEM TO DROP
SOUTHEAST OFF THE BC COAST AND INTO MONTANA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
AT THE VERY LEAST EXPECT COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH MAYBE A FEW STRONGER STORMS ON THURSDAY
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE CANADIAN SYSTEM. NBM IS
SHOWING HIGHS IN BILLINGS IN THE 70S FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND AT THIS TIME, THOUGH THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF SPREAD
IN THE FORECAST OUT THAT FAR. KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS FOR NEXT WEEKEND, COULD FEEL MORE LIKE FALL
THAN SUMMER. CHAMBERS
AVIATION
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS MID AFTERNOON. KBIL AND KSHR HAVE THE BEST CHANCES
(30-40% CHANCE) OF GETTING A THUNDERSTORM, WHEREAS LOWER
CONFIDENCE (20%) EXISTS FOR KLVM AND KMLS TO GET A DIRECT
THUNDERSTORM. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS 35-45 KTS, SMALL HAIL, AND
HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. CHANCES FOR A
THUNDERSTORM DROP OFF AFTER 06Z. TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/087 061/092 060/086 059/092 061/088 061/080 057/075
51/U 01/U 21/U 10/U 11/B 23/T 32/W
LVM 051/085 051/086 049/084 051/089 053/085 051/078 049/075
31/U 02/T 31/U 01/U 11/B 23/T 33/T
HDN 059/087 059/095 059/087 057/093 060/091 059/082 056/076
51/U 01/U 21/U 10/U 10/B 22/W 32/W
MLS 063/088 061/093 064/086 060/094 063/089 061/080 058/077
31/U 10/U 33/T 10/U 21/B 33/T 32/W
4BQ 063/085 061/090 063/086 061/093 063/091 062/082 058/076
42/T 10/U 22/T 10/U 11/U 22/T 43/T
BHK 059/084 057/088 062/083 058/090 060/087 059/080 055/077
33/T 10/U 23/T 20/U 22/W 33/W 32/W
SHR 055/082 055/090 056/085 055/092 058/090 056/081 053/074
43/T 11/U 11/U 00/U 00/B 12/T 43/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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