934
FXUS65 KBYZ 031506
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
906 AM MDT SUN AUG 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DECREASES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN POSSIBLE FOR LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.
UPDATE
QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. LATEST CAMS BRING
EVENING CONVECTION A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS, SO
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR NORTH AS I-90 TO COVER THIS, ALSO
TWEAKED PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE
EASTERN STATE LINE TO LINE UP BETTER WITH EASTERN OFFICES
THOUGHTS. REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOOD SHAPE FOR A QUIETER DAY
CONVECTION WISE WITH A LOT OF SUN AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. CHAMBERS
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
WEAK UPPER TROF SLIDES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY ENHANCING
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A PUSH OF DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. WE STILL HAVE A WEAK PERTURBATION PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG THE
MT/WY BORDER. PLUS, WE HAVE SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
OCCURING ALONG THE DAKOTAS BORDER. THUS, WE EXPECT TO SEE MAINLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
OUR CWA, FROM THE BEARTOOTHS TO THE BIG HORNS AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF MONTANA. MLCAPE IS LESS THAN 750 J/KG IN THESE
AREAS WITH 25-30 KTS OF SHEAR AND ONLY WEAK FORCING. SO WE DO NOT
EXPECT SEVERE STORMS. WHILE PWATS WILL DROP TO AROUND OR UNDER
0.75 INCHES IN OUR WEST, THEY AREA STILL >0.80 IN OUR EAST,
INCLUDING SHERIDAN COUNTY, WY. SO THERE REMAINS A RISK OF HEAVY
RAIN WITH A FEW STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS. HOWEVER, OVERALL THERE IS LIKELY TO BE MUCH LESS
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CONVECTION MAY LINGER IN THE FAR
EAST LATE IN THE EVENING BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. BT
MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, THE BEST CHANCE (30-50%) IS OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND NORTH OF BILLINGS. WITH THIS SYSTEM, ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE VALUES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, SO HEAVY RAIN IS LESS OF A
THREAT THAN IN THE PREVIOUS WEEK.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT EASTWARD, ALLOWING A TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
WHILE THE EXACT DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, A
COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S. THEN, AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN AT THE END OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL. BY
SATURDAY, THERE IS AT LEAST A 30% CHANCE OF HIGHS LESS THAN 75
ACROSS THE REGION. ARCHER
AVIATION
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING NEAR AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE DAKOTA
BORDER. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS UP TO 45 KTS, SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN. THE MOST LIKELY
IMPACTED SITES ARE KLVM AND KSHR. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 061/092 059/086 059/092 062/091 060/080 056/076
1/U 21/U 31/U 00/U 00/B 23/T 32/W
LVM 085 052/086 049/083 051/089 053/086 050/076 047/073
2/T 22/T 21/U 00/U 11/B 34/T 33/T
HDN 088 059/094 058/086 058/094 060/092 058/081 055/077
1/U 10/U 31/U 00/U 10/B 23/T 42/W
MLS 089 062/094 063/086 060/094 064/093 062/082 057/077
1/U 10/U 43/T 10/U 11/B 33/T 42/T
4BQ 086 063/091 063/086 061/093 063/095 062/082 058/075
2/T 20/U 21/U 10/U 11/U 22/T 52/T
BHK 085 059/089 062/084 058/090 061/090 059/081 056/076
2/T 20/U 34/T 21/U 22/T 32/T 42/W
SHR 083 056/091 056/085 055/093 058/094 056/081 052/074
2/T 20/U 11/U 00/U 00/B 13/T 43/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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