403
FXUS65 KBYZ 042301
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
501 PM MDT MON AUG 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS
BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TODAY INTO
THURSDAY.
- COOLER (HIGHS IN THE 70S) AND WETTER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE
THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MONTANA UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING. MAIN THREATS
CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND ISOLATED
HAIL. STAY WEATHER AWARE, AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD THREATENING
WEATHER APPROACH YOUR AREA. ARENDS
DISCUSSION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF
A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT. WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
WINDS INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA, SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE. AT THIS TIME, HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INITIATE
MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY THEN LOOKS TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST OFF THE TERRAIN
AND OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. LOOK
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS IT
MOVES NORTH AND EAST INTO THE BETTER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. WITH
THIS, SOME HIGH- RESOLUTION MODELS WANT TO FORM A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY EAST OF BILLINGS, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
EITHER WAY, STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN THREATS
TODAY, ESPECIALLY IF THE LINE FORMS THIS EVENING. WHILE
PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER, HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE TODAY, ESPECIALLY
UNDER THE MORE DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PLAINS.
LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THIS, THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO
REMAIN NORTH OF BILLINGS, SO THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE (10 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE). WITH THIS ACTIVITY,
MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO REMAIN BENIGN, BUT A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN MONTANA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT, DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND END THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DRY
DAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN SEASONAL TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S. ARENDS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DROP INTO MONTANA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WHILE THERE IS STILL
SOME MINOR DISCREPANCIES REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE FEATURE WILL
DIG, THE CONSENSUS IS VERY CLEAR AMONGST ALL OF THE FORECAST
CLUSTERS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL IMPACT THE REGIN LATER THIS WEEK.
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE HIGH PWAT VALUES THAT SHOULD ALREADY BE
IN PLACE, THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE AN EFFICIENT MOISTURE PRODUCER FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH SOME POCKETS OF HIGHER AMOUNT'S UNDER
STRONGER SHOWERS. THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA HAS A >50% CHANCE
OF PICKING UP AT LEAST 0.1" OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH PROBABILITIES GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FARTHER SOUTH.
THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT COME COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY START OUT WARM FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS IN LATER IN THE DAY QUICKLY
DROPPING TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE HIGHS ON FRIDAY
10+ DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WITH BILLINGS CURRENTLY SITTING AT A 60%
CHANCE OF A HIGH BELOW 75F ON FRIDAY.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION
BACK TO DRIER WEATHER AND AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE START OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK WILL LIKELY LOOK MUCH LIKE WE HAVE BEEN USED TO
SEEING WITH HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AND SOME SMALL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BEING THAT THIS IS STILL A
WEEK OUT, THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY LIKELY TO CHANGE. WMR
AVIATION
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH SOME
POSSIBLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS ARE STRONG AND
ERRATIC WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITY. WHILE TS
COULD IMPACT ALL TAF SITES, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. BY TONIGHT, THE
TS THREAT WILL COME TO AN END AROUND KLVM, KBIL, AND KSHR, BUT
LINGERING ACTIVITY LOOKS TO KEEP THE CHANCE GOING OVER KMLS AND
KBHK (20 TO 40 PERCENT). ON TUESDAY, A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT AREAS NORTH OF KBIL. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ARENDS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 092 059/086 059/090 062/087 059/077 054/081 058/085
3/T 41/U 00/U 12/T 53/T 11/U 00/U
LVM 087 048/082 049/089 052/085 048/074 046/081 050/083
4/T 41/U 00/U 13/T 63/T 11/U 00/U
HDN 094 059/086 056/093 060/089 058/077 052/081 055/085
3/T 41/U 00/U 11/U 54/T 11/U 00/U
MLS 093 064/086 059/092 064/091 061/077 055/080 057/083
0/B 52/T 00/U 11/U 54/T 21/B 10/B
4BQ 091 063/086 061/092 064/094 061/078 056/081 057/083
2/T 31/U 00/U 10/U 33/T 21/U 10/B
BHK 090 062/085 058/090 062/094 059/077 053/078 054/081
0/U 44/T 10/U 21/U 44/T 21/U 10/B
SHR 090 054/084 054/092 058/090 054/076 049/079 051/083
2/T 20/U 00/U 01/U 24/T 21/U 00/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 573 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES
29>31-42-57-58-63-68-138-139-169-171>173-228-235.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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