300
FXUS65 KBYZ 052025
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
225 PM MDT TUE AUG 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THURSDAY.
- COOLER (HIGHS IN THE 70S) AND AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. OVER CENTRAL MONTANA, NORTH OF
BILLINGS, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AROUND AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW (15 PERCENT OR LESS). IN FAR SOUTH-
EASTERN MONTANA, A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE
(15 PERCENT CHANCE), BUT HIGH- RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY, SHOULD IT FORM, STAY SOUTH OF MONTANA.
BY THIS EVENING, THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY
OVER CENTRAL MONTANA MID-DAY TODAY WILL LIFT OUT OF OUR AREA TO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR MOST AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE 80S TO LOWER 90S UNDER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT. IN FAR
SOUTH-EASTERN MONTANA, HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THERE IS AT
LEAST A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THIS THOUGH AS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE ENVIRONMENT MAY REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH THE
DAY. AT THIS TIME, WE ARE JUST ADVERTISING A LOW CHANCE, 15
PERCENT, OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH-EASTERN CARTER
COUNTY, BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS TREND.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. WITH THIS, SOME ENERGY EJECTING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO AREAS AROUND WHEATLAND AND GOLDEN VALLEY
COUNTIES (10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE).
WILDFIRE SMOKE...MODELS INDICATE THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL MODEST
INFLUXES OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM WILDFIRES BOTH NEARBY AND FAR AWAY.
WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, PEOPLE
SHOULD ANTICIPATE HAZY SKIES AT TIMES. ARENDS
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ON THURSDAY, A TROUGH WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM THE PNW.
THIS FEATURE WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE
ENTIRE CWA LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH HIGH
MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS AND PWAT VALUES NEAR 1" IN
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA, THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE LARGE FORCING MECHANISM. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR OVER A DAY NOW, AS
SOME OF THE MID- RANGE MODELS START TO PICK UP THIS SYSTEM SOME
SMALL QUESTIONS HAVE STARTED TO EMERGE. THE LARGEST OF THESE BEING
WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL BE A UNIFORM VORT MAX THAT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION AT ONE TIME OR IF IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
"MESSY" WITH NUMEROUS LOBES PIVOTING AROUND ONE ANOTHER. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS WANT TO SHOW MORE OF THE LATTER OPTION
WHICH COULD MANIFEST AS NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH DRY
BREAKS IN BETWEEN. ALL OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN
DURING THIS EVENT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS BEING IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER INTO EAST CENTRAL MONTANA.
THOSE WHO HAVE PLANS IN THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD PREPARE IN ADVANCE FOR COLD AND WET CONDITIONS AND
POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SNOW MIXING IN ABOVE 11KFT.
THE OTHER STORY WITH THIS EVENT, AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE, IS THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL ADVECT INTO OUR AREA FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. HIGHS LOOK TO BE 10-20F BELOW AVERAGE IN SOME LOCATIONS
WITH BILLINGS POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE 75F ON FRIDAY.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND MODEST RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN AND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MAKE A REBOUND BACK TO AVERAGE. AS
WE MOVE INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK, DISCREPANCIES EXIST IN THE MODELS
REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS MAKE A
RETURN AND THUS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER IN
TIME. WMR
AVIATION
18Z DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MONTANA ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARDS TODAY. WITH THIS, THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE FOR A TS IN EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON (5 TO 15
PERCENT). OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. KLVM IS GUSTING TO
28KTS AS OF THE 17Z OBSERVATION AND THIS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
UNTIL 03Z WHEN WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME MINOR
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION DUE TO HAZE. LOCALIZED VIS REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR SMALL NEARBY FIRES. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/091 062/088 060/077 054/080 056/084 058/088 060/089
00/U 01/B 54/T 11/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 050/089 052/086 048/072 045/076 047/082 051/086 053/087
00/U 13/T 64/T 11/B 00/U 00/U 01/U
HDN 057/092 059/090 059/079 052/080 053/085 055/088 057/090
00/U 00/U 44/T 20/U 00/U 10/U 00/U
MLS 060/092 064/094 063/080 056/079 056/084 059/087 060/089
00/U 11/U 44/T 21/U 10/U 10/B 00/U
4BQ 062/091 064/093 063/081 055/079 056/082 059/086 060/089
00/U 10/U 22/T 20/U 10/U 10/U 00/U
BHK 057/089 062/094 061/079 053/079 054/082 056/086 057/087
00/U 11/U 43/T 21/N 10/U 10/B 00/U
SHR 055/092 059/092 056/079 047/077 050/082 053/086 054/088
00/U 00/U 14/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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