517
FXUS65 KBYZ 060804
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
204 AM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THURSDAY.
- COOLER (HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S) AND AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH TONIGHT...
TODAY WILL BE A DRY DAY FOR THE LARGE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS AS A
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE CAMS (HREF) INSIST ON A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SE CORNER OF MT INTO THE NE WY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY SOME OVER THE BIG HORN
MTNS REGION. THIS SEEMS TO BE RELATED TO SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DESPPITE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING TRIGGER. IF
SOMETHING DOES BREAK THROUGH THE CAP THERE IT COULD BECOME STRONG
AS PROGGS SHOW DECENT HELICITY VALUES AND A BOUYANT ENVIRONMENT
(LI'S -2 TO -4) AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES.
BY THIS EVENING, FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AS
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. WITH THIS, SOME ENERGY EJECTING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO AREAS AROUND WHEATLAND AND GOLDEN VALLEY
COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S IN THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS TOLOWER 60S NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDERS.
WILDFIRE SMOKE...MODELS INDICATE THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL MODEST
INFLUXES OF SMOKE ALOFT FROM WILDFIRES BOTH NEARBY AND FAR AWAY.
WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, PEOPLE
SHOULD ANTICIPATE HAZY SKIES. BT
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUCKLE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW, WEAK
MORNING CONVECTION IS DEPICTED AMONGST THE LATEST ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC RUNS. THURSDAY WILL BE AN INTERESTING SETUP,
SPECIFICALLY FOR CONVECTION. THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO WESTERN
MONTANA, ALONG WITH IT AN INCREASING 500 MB JET LINES UP OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THE MAIN MOISTURE TAP WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE PACIFIC, THOUGH SOME WEAK ENE WINDS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH COULD BRING SOME MOISTURE IN FROM THE DAKOTAS TO
EASTERN MT. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH
SEVERAL VARIABLES DO FAVOR SEVERE WEATHER, INCLUDING STEEP LAPSE
RATES, ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR, AND LOW LEVEL FORCING. LESS CONDUCIVE
VARIABLES RIGHT NOW INCLUDE STRONG CAPPING COURTESY OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AS WELL AS THE QUESTIONS REGARDING MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY. THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY HAS A MARGINAL (1/5)
TO SLIGHT (2/5) RISK ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN
MONTANA. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR
PLANS ON THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH SOME LINGERING CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS WILL SINK BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY, AROUND
0.5-0.8". COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (MID 70S TO
LOW 80S). THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS LOW SATURDAY AND INTO
THE NEW WEEK. ENSEMBLES DEPICT ZONAL FLOW WITH NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S), THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME BUT STAY TUNED AS TIME
PROGRESSES.
MATOS
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD VFR AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF MT IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT NO TAF SITES WILL BE
IMPACTED. SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES DUE TO
WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM THE WEST. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 091 063/087 059/077 054/081 056/085 058/089 060/090
0/U 12/T 53/T 10/U 01/U 11/U 00/U
LVM 090 053/084 047/073 046/077 048/084 051/087 053/088
0/U 14/T 73/T 00/B 01/U 10/U 00/U
HDN 092 060/088 059/077 052/081 053/086 056/089 058/092
0/U 00/B 43/T 10/U 00/U 11/U 00/U
MLS 091 066/092 062/078 056/079 056/084 058/088 060/090
0/U 10/U 54/T 11/B 10/U 11/U 10/U
4BQ 091 065/092 062/078 055/080 056/083 060/087 060/089
1/U 10/U 22/T 10/U 10/U 11/U 10/U
BHK 090 063/094 060/078 053/078 053/082 056/084 057/087
1/U 11/U 43/T 11/N 10/B 11/U 10/U
SHR 091 058/091 056/075 048/078 050/083 053/086 056/089
1/U 00/U 22/T 10/U 01/U 11/U 10/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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