776
FXUS65 KBYZ 070831
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
231 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. KEEP ALERT! FAST MOVING STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
- WARM AGAIN TODAY, BUT COOLER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY WITH A WARMING TREND TO START NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS UNZIPPED IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR
EKALAKA IN A BOUYANT ENVIRONMENT AND FED BY 850MB JET. WE COULD
SEE SOME SMALL HAIL FROM THIS ACTIVITY AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEAST THE
REST OF THE NIGHT, WITH SOME STUBBORN REFORMATION RAKING THE AREA.
MOST OF IT SHOULD MOVE EAST OR DISSIPATE AS LLJ WEAKENS LATE
TONIGHT. OUT WEST WE HAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING INTO OUR
MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL ZONES AS PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES IN ON THE
BACKING SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING.
PACIFIC NW TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF UPPER JET ENERGY ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH
INTO CENTRAL MONTANA, AND ENERGY EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BY AFTERNOON. RELATED CONVECTION LOOKS
TO INITIATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA BEFORE
MOVING NORTH AND EAST OVER THE PLAINS. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES
EAST, STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY GET INTO A BETTER ENVIRONMENT
(HIGHER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY). SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
NORTH UNDER A STRONG SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW PRODUCING VERY
FAVORABLE TOTAL SHEAR PROFILES. THUS, SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWATS 0.90 - 1.10 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER, STORMS MAY MOVE FAST ENOUGH THAT FLOODING IS NOT A
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE UNLESS WE SEE SOME TRAINING STORMS.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN MONTANA TONIGHT WE MAY SEE
POCKETS OR LINES OF STRONG CONVECTION DUE TO THE VERY DYNAMIC
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL FOR AUGUST HERE.
MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER OUR EASTERN SECTIONS
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS THE MAIN SWATH OF CONVECTION EXITS
OUR EAST IN THE AFTERNOON, SECONDARY ENERGY ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW
TO OUR NORTH MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO MAINLY OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THIS AS THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN
PUSHED EAST WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR CWA. FOR NOW, HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS SOME IN OUR NW/N SECTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER
MODEL GUIDANCE.
IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED, FRIDAY SHOULD SEE BRISK WINDS WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 20S (MPH) OVER THE PLAINS AND 30S TO 40S
(MPH) OVER THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FILLS IN ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO SASKATCHEWAN,
TAKING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH IT.
LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY TO BE IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S, COOLING TO THE
70S FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 40S IN THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS TO 50S EAST. BT
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA ON SATURDAY,
BRINGING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND 10F BELOW NORMAL, IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CRATER TO AROUND 0.5 TO 0.8 INCHES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE RESULT OF LOW PWATS WILL BE A
NEGLIGIBLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPIATION. BREEZY WNW WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE PASSING UPPER LOW ON SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS IN THE
15-30 MPH RANGE. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST AND
FAR EASTERN ZONES.
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND INTO THE NEW WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TOWARDS NORMALS, IN THE 80S AND LOW
90S. ENSEMBLES ARE DEPICTING THE RIDGE FLATTENING BY MIDWEEK,
ALLOWING FOR ZONAL FLOW AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COURTESY OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES.
MATOS
AVIATION
LOOK FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND KLVM THIS
MORNING. A CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY ALSO IMPACT THE K97M-KBHK
VICINITY THROUGH 11Z. LATER TODAY, EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS OF
CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING.
KLVM MAY SEE TS IMPACTS BEGINNING AROUND 20Z, WHILE FOR KBIL-KRPX
IT WILL BE CLOSER TO 23Z, AND KMLS AFTER 01Z. STRONG SURFACE WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH GUSTS
50-60 MPH POSSIBLE LOCALLY. SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 086 058/077 055/081 055/086 058/088 059/092 060/091
3/T 54/T 10/U 01/U 10/U 00/U 11/U
LVM 083 045/073 044/078 047/083 051/088 054/090 053/089
6/T 52/W 11/U 01/U 00/U 01/U 11/U
HDN 087 058/078 052/081 053/086 056/089 057/093 058/092
2/T 54/T 10/U 01/U 10/U 00/U 11/U
MLS 089 060/076 057/080 055/085 058/086 059/091 060/090
1/U 54/T 11/U 01/B 10/U 10/U 11/U
4BQ 089 062/076 055/079 055/083 059/085 059/090 060/090
0/U 23/T 10/U 01/U 10/U 10/U 21/U
BHK 091 059/076 052/078 053/081 054/083 056/086 057/086
2/W 44/T 11/N 01/U 10/U 10/U 21/U
SHR 089 055/076 047/079 050/082 052/086 055/090 057/089
1/U 22/W 10/U 01/B 10/U 00/U 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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