109
FXUS65 KBYZ 072200
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
400 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. KEEP ALERT! SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE.
- COOLER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW
80S F.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOCATIONS ALONG THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND DAKOTAS BORDER HAVING A 40-80% CHANCE OF
GETTING A WIND GUST OVER 40 MPH.
- MOSTLY DRY WITH A WARMING TREND TO START NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE DAKOTAS
BORDER. ALL HAZARDS TYPES INCLUDING STRONG WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL,
AND TORNADOS ARE POSSIBLE.
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES COOLER FOR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM
ABOUT 5 DEGREES SATURDAY FROM THE 70S F FRIDAY TO THE 70S TO LOW
80S F. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING DESCENT AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO WESTERLY 700 MB WINDS OF 40-50 KTS.
THE NBM IS CURRENTLY GIVING LOCATIONS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS
A 50-80% CHANCE OF GETTING A WIND GUST OVER 40 MPH WITH 0-30%
CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL SEE
THE BEST CHANCES FROM NORTHERN ROSEBUD TO CARTER COUNTIES WHERE
THERE ARE 40-80% CHANCES FOR A GUST OVER 40 MPH.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON, WHICH, WHEN COMBINED
WITH UPPER DESCENT, IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND EVENTUALLY END
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE RETURN OF UPPER ASCENT AND WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO NORTHEAST MONTANA. ENSEMBLES ARE CURRENTLY
KEEPING THESE CHANCES OUT OF OUR REGION, BUT THIS IS A PATTERN
THAT LIKES TO OVER ACHIEVE SO IT CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR OUR AREA.
TORGERSON
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SOME LINGERING ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS NEAR NORMAL AT THIS TIME,
WITH PWATS AROUND 0.5-0.8", WHICH WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL.
CURRENTLY, THE NBM HAS A LESS THAN 15% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THIS MAY CHANGE IF A BETTER WAVE OF ENERGY
OR HIGHER MOISTURE MOVES IN.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK. THEN, A PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER AND
UNSETTLED IS EXPECTED AS A TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SENDS WEAK DISTURBANCES AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO
THE REGION. THE EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, SO
STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FROM THE 80S SUNDAY TO UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEN, AS THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
UNSETTLED, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. ARCHER
AVIATION
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES
(20-40%). BY 09Z TONIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE EXITED MOST OF
THE REGION, ONLY CONTINUING FOR SITES NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER SUCH
AS KBHK. FRIDAY WILL SEE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH
LOCATIONS NEAR MOUNTAINS HAVING THE BEST CHANCES (10-30%). WINDS
WILL INCREASE FOR THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERSISTENT GUSTS INTO THE 30S MPH. TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 086 057/076 056/081 055/084 058/090 061/092 060/087
3/T 32/W 11/U 01/U 00/U 00/U 11/U
LVM 083 044/073 046/078 047/082 051/089 053/091 053/086
7/T 62/W 10/U 11/U 00/U 00/U 11/U
HDN 088 057/076 054/081 053/085 056/090 058/093 059/088
2/T 51/B 10/U 01/U 10/U 00/U 11/U
MLS 089 061/076 058/078 055/084 058/090 060/091 060/086
1/U 52/T 11/N 01/U 10/U 10/U 11/U
4BQ 089 061/075 055/079 055/082 059/087 061/091 061/088
0/U 32/T 10/U 00/U 10/U 10/U 10/U
BHK 090 059/076 054/075 052/082 056/088 058/089 058/086
0/U 42/T 11/N 01/U 10/U 10/U 10/U
SHR 089 055/074 048/079 050/082 053/087 055/091 057/088
1/B 33/T 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/U 01/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 575 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 29>33-36-37-57-58-138-139-169-171-173-235.
WY...NONE.
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