183
FXUS65 KBYZ 222024
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
224 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COMFORTABLE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK.
- VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN NEXT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. THE
CHANCE FORE PRECIPITATION LOW (GENERALLY LESS THAN 25%) ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK FORCING IS SHOWN BY MESOANALYSIS THERE AND A FEW
MODELS DEPICT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
IF THINGS WILL DEVELOP. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE BIGHORNS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MESOANALYSIS HAS SHOWN CAA AT 850MB, ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS
AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY, BRINGING PRESSURE FALLS AND
BREEZY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. WINDS GUSTING 15 TO 35 MPH HAVE
BEEN ONGOING AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (70S TO LOW 80S) AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. THERE IS ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FAR WEST, SOUTH OF BIG SKY, WHERE
MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 15-25% ALONG WITH
STRONG MIXING.
LASTLY, THE LATEST HRRR RUN DEPICTS A LOT OF WESTERN WILDFIRE
SMOKE ALOFT MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. IT DOES NOT SHOW MUCH
SMOKE MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE, SO REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY AND
AIR QUALITY WILL BE VERY MINOR.
MATOS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING VERY
QUIET, AS WE REMAIN ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN U.S./CANADA. THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPRESSED, AND EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS AND RHS IN
CHECK. THUS, NOT MUCH TO SAY WITH REGARD TO CONVECTION NOR FIRE
WEATHER. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS INITIALLY,
RISING TO NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. MONSOON MOISTURE
OVER THE 4-CORNERS AND GREAT BASIN MAY EKE FAR ENOUGH INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MT AND WY TO BRING A LOW RISK OF BENIGN/DIURNAL
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
ENSEMBLES AND CLUSTER ANALYSES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A
SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ERODING THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT BY NEXT THURSDAY &
FRIDAY. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL (0.75-1.00"). IT WOULD APPEAR THIS IS THE NEXT REAL
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. VERY WEAK WIND SHEAR
SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION NON-SEVERE, BUT THE MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM
MOTION COULD YIELD LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE
COMING DAYS. WITH THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS SHOULD
COME A TREND DOWN IN TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
JKL
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. REDUCTIONS TO SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
REGIONAL WILDFIRE SMOKE. MATOS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/081 053/080 051/082 052/086 058/087 060/084 059/084
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 12/T 22/T
LVM 045/080 045/080 045/082 046/086 051/084 052/080 051/080
00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 13/T 34/T 33/T
HDN 052/081 049/081 048/084 049/087 054/088 057/085 057/085
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 12/T 22/T
MLS 050/077 049/076 049/080 051/085 056/087 058/087 059/084
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 01/B 21/B
4BQ 053/077 050/075 050/078 052/082 056/084 058/084 059/083
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 22/T
BHK 047/075 045/074 045/078 049/082 053/085 056/085 056/084
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 11/U
SHR 050/079 047/078 046/079 048/083 050/084 053/081 054/081
10/U 00/U 01/U 01/U 12/T 23/T 33/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page