529
FXUS65 KBYZ 231943
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
143 PM MDT SAT AUG 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COMFORTABLE TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEK.
- VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE COMBINATION OF A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE IS NOTED IN CENTRAL SK. THIS FEATURE WILL REACH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, WELL TO OUR EAST, AND ITS ONLY IMPACT ON
OUR AREA WILL BE TO REINFORCE THE COOLER EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.
LOOK FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S, AND HIGHS SUNDAY
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S (VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY). THERE IS
ABUNDANT WILDFIRE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH, BUT THE EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL KEEP "NEAR-SURFACE" SMOKE OUT OF OUR
REGION, THOUGH SKIES WILL BE A BIT HAZY AT TIMES FROM LOFTED
SMOKE.
JKL
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER TO START
NEXT WEEK THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PERSISTING TO OUR
WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL PLACE US UNDER MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE, WHICH WILL KEEP CONVECTION
SUPPRESSED AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL VALUES (UPPER 70S TO MID
80S). WITH THAT SAID, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE NUDGES INTO OUR REGION (20 TO 65 PERCENT
CHANCE, GREATEST WEDNESDAY). ON WEDNESDAY, INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND A BIT MORE ENERGY ALOFT MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE DIURNAL
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO MOVE OUT OVER THE PLAINS, BUT
CHANCES REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME. BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ABOVE
NORMAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LOOK TO BRING OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF MORE ROBUST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA (10 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE, GREATEST OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND LOWEST AROUND BAKER, MT). WITH GENERALLY WEAK WIND
SHEAR IN PLACE, CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NON- SEVERE, BUT SLOW
STORM MOTIONS COULD YIELD LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SOMETHING TO WATCH
AT LEAST. HOW THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES INTO SATURDAY
REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, BUT TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND BEHIND THE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY SYSTEM. ARENDS/BT
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED AT TIMES DUE
TO REGIONAL WILDFIRE SMOKE. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 052/081 051/083 052/086 059/083 060/080 058/084 057/085
00/U 00/U 00/B 11/E 23/W 22/T 11/U
LVM 044/081 044/083 048/083 052/079 052/076 050/080 048/084
00/U 00/U 01/B 23/T 35/T 33/T 22/T
HDN 048/081 047/083 048/088 056/084 058/081 056/084 055/085
00/U 00/U 00/B 01/B 22/W 22/T 21/U
MLS 048/076 048/079 050/085 057/086 059/082 059/081 058/084
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 22/W 11/U
4BQ 049/075 048/077 050/083 059/084 061/079 059/078 057/080
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 12/W 32/T 21/U
BHK 042/072 044/077 047/082 054/084 056/083 055/080 055/081
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 22/W 11/U
SHR 046/078 046/080 048/084 054/081 054/076 051/078 051/080
00/U 01/U 01/B 12/T 24/T 44/T 22/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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