492
FXUS65 KBYZ 242011
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
211 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
- CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS TUESDAY.
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY; STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
DRY NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS, WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S (COOLEST EAST). THE EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL KEEP "NEAR-SURFACE" SMOKE OUT OF OUR REGION (THIS WILL
CHANGE MIDWEEK), WHILE LOFTED SMOKE KEEPS OUR SKIES OCCASIONALLY
HAZY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ALSO REMAIN SUPPRESSED DUE TO THE
EAST WINDS AND SEASONABLY HIGH HUMIDITIES.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE EAST,
MONSOON MOISTURE IN THE GREAT BASIN WILL EKE TOWARD WESTERN WY AND
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MT MONDAY NIGHT. IN OTHER WORDS, THE RISK OF
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/T-STORMS IS GETTING CLOSER, BUT CURRENTLY LOOKS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY.
JKL
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER DAYS OVER THE
PLAINS. HOWEVER, OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHERN
MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DOES
INCREASE EACH DAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY BEGIN TO WORK
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, CHANCES REMAIN MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY (20 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE) BEFORE
SPREADING OUT OVER THE PLAINS TOWARD BILLINGS WEDNESDAY (15 TO 70
PERCENT CHANCE, GREATEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS). FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, ENSEMBLE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 150
TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND A BROAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REGION. WITH THIS, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA (25 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE, GREATEST OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS). BY LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, DRIER
WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
REGION.
THROUGH THIS TIME, THE CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW
WITH VERY LITTLE WIND SHEAR OR MID-LEVEL FLOW TO WORK WITH.
HOWEVER, THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BRING THE THREAT
OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN TO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WITH THIS, RECREATIONISTS AND THOSE LIVING NEAR RECENT BURN SCARS
SHOULD STAY ALERT AS HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS, INCLUDING FLASH
FLOODING, COULD DEVELOP UNDER SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE
CONVECTION TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRIER,
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED POCKETS OF BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS TIME LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL WITH
HIGHS FLUCTUATING IN THE 70S AND 80S. ARENDS
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED AT TIMES DUE
TO REGIONAL WILDFIRE SMOKE. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/084 054/083 059/080 060/082 059/081 057/084 057/086
00/U 00/B 11/E 24/T 34/W 32/W 11/U
LVM 046/083 048/083 053/073 051/076 050/077 049/083 049/085
00/U 01/B 24/T 57/T 55/T 32/T 12/T
HDN 048/084 049/086 057/085 058/083 056/081 055/084 054/086
00/U 00/B 11/E 23/T 34/W 32/W 11/U
MLS 047/079 049/085 056/086 060/084 060/080 057/082 057/084
00/U 00/B 00/B 01/B 33/T 32/W 11/U
4BQ 049/078 050/083 058/084 059/082 059/079 057/079 057/082
00/U 00/B 11/B 12/T 44/T 42/T 11/U
BHK 041/076 046/082 051/085 054/082 055/079 054/078 053/080
00/U 00/U 00/B 01/B 22/T 32/W 11/U
SHR 046/081 047/083 056/080 054/079 052/077 050/079 051/083
00/U 01/B 13/T 35/T 45/T 33/T 12/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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