555
FXUS65 KBYZ 250735
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
135 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
- CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TUESDAY.
- GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY; STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
RIDGING OVER THE NW US WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE REGION UNDER DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW. TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT FROM IDAHO TO INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES FOR THE MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS WITH A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON, LASTING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS (20-40% CHANCE). THIS WILL ALSO BRING A GOOD PUSH
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE, INCREASING PWATS ACROSS THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS TO 150-180% OF NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS
A RESULT, HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS IN THE DAYS TO FOLLOW. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS. SMOKE FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRE WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ALOFT AS THE CURRENT PATTERN PERSISTS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S TODAY AND
TUESDAY. TS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
MT AND NORTHERN WY WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER OUR
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS BEFORE SPILLING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS AND
BILLINGS AREA BY THURSDAY. POPS RANGE FROM 15% OVER OUR CENTRAL
ZONES TO TO 80% OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AND MOISTURE PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ENSEMBLES ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARD A
SCENARIO WHICH LINGERS THE UPPER TROUGH IN OUR FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS SATURDAY BEFORE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TO
GENERALLY DRY US OUT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.
THROUGH THIS TIME, THE CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW
GIVEN VERY LITTLE WIND SHEAR AND VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW.
HOWEVER, WITH PWATS INCREASING TO OVER 200% OF NORMAL IN OUR
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES, THERE IS A RISK OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY IN OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES SATURDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND, RECREATIONISTS IN THE
HIGH COUNTRY AND THOSE LIVING NEAR RECENT BURN SCARS SHOULD STAY
ALERT FOR HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS, INCLUDING FLASH FLOODING, WHICH MAY
OCCUR UNDER SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS TIME LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL WITH
HIGHS FLUCTUATING IN THE 70S AND 80S. BT
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED AT TIMES DUE
TO REGIONAL WILDFIRE SMOKE. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 054/084 059/083 061/081 060/081 058/082 056/084
0/U 00/B 01/E 24/T 34/T 32/W 11/U
LVM 084 049/083 053/077 051/075 050/076 049/080 049/083
0/U 02/W 24/T 57/T 55/T 32/T 11/U
HDN 084 049/086 056/085 058/083 057/081 054/081 053/085
0/U 00/B 01/B 13/T 34/T 32/W 11/U
MLS 079 049/085 056/086 059/084 060/079 057/079 056/082
0/U 00/B 00/B 01/B 33/T 42/W 11/U
4BQ 077 051/083 058/083 060/083 060/077 058/077 056/079
0/U 00/B 11/B 12/T 44/T 42/T 21/U
BHK 076 047/082 051/084 053/082 055/078 053/076 052/080
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 23/T 42/T 21/U
SHR 081 048/083 056/081 054/079 052/077 050/078 049/081
0/U 01/B 13/T 35/T 45/T 43/T 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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