006
FXUS65 KBYZ 260214
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
814 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
- THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (MODERATE CHANCE) AND THE ENTIRE AREA
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY (MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE).
- THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
UPDATE
DRY NW FLOW BRINGING ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER TO OUR REGION.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM THE SW AND THIS IS A
SIGN OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE THAT WILL INCREASE OVER THE COMING
DAYS. IN FACT, A FEW SHOWERS MAY EKE INTO THE BEARTOOTH-ABSAROKAS
TOMORROW MORNING, FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK T-STORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME, FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS DUE TO SOME CLOUD COVER. JKL
DISCUSSION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING UNDER DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TONIGHT.
CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. BY TUESDAY, THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTH- CENTRAL MONTANA (20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE). WITH THIS,
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY THE MORNING
HOURS, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THIS ACTIVITY, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
MUCH FOR PRECIPITATION WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH
(0.10") FORECAST. WHILE NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, GUSTY WINDS COULD STILL ACCOMPANY ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY AND DRIER
AIR PERSISTING OVER THE PLAINS, TUESDAY'S CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO STAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEIR IMMEDIATE FOOTHILLS.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER NIGHT OVER
THE PLAINS AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
DURING THIS TIME, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE, SETTING UP A WETTER SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
SEE THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS. ARENDS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE LONG TERM IS WEAK LEADING TO A
LOT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. HOWEVER, THERE IS
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LONG TERM WILL TREND WETTER WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD
OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. PWAT ANOMALIES WILL APPROACH 200%
OF NORMAL LEADING TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND BRINGING PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SOUNDINGS FOR BILLINGS INDICATE A
DEEP MOISTURE LAYER AND MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO
THE SOUTH. FORCING WILL BE HARD TO COME BY FOR THIS PRECIPITATION
LEADING TO MORE UNCERTAINTY. WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWATS AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE HIGH
70S TO THE MID 80S F. TORGERSON
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY TO BE REDUCED AT TIMES DUE TO REGIONAL
WILDFIRE SMOKE, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK T-STORMS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO THE BEARTOOTH-ABSAROKAS TOMORROW. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055/085 060/083 062/082 059/076 057/079 055/085 056/083
00/B 11/E 24/T 46/T 43/W 11/U 11/U
LVM 050/083 053/078 052/077 051/072 047/078 048/083 048/081
02/W 24/T 57/T 67/T 54/T 21/U 12/T
HDN 049/088 057/086 059/085 057/077 054/078 052/085 053/084
00/B 11/E 23/T 45/T 43/W 11/U 11/U
MLS 049/085 055/086 059/086 060/078 057/079 055/083 057/083
00/U 00/B 01/B 44/T 42/W 21/U 11/U
4BQ 050/084 058/084 060/082 060/076 057/075 055/080 056/083
00/B 01/B 12/T 55/T 63/T 21/U 11/U
BHK 047/082 050/085 052/084 056/076 052/076 051/079 051/080
00/U 00/U 00/B 23/T 53/W 21/U 11/U
SHR 047/086 055/082 054/080 053/074 051/074 048/080 051/081
00/B 12/T 35/T 57/T 55/T 22/T 12/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page