128
FXUS65 KBYZ 272002
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
202 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
- THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY (MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE).
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. USE CAUTION IF RECREATING, ESPECIALLY NEAR
RECENT BURN SCARS.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THURSDAY, A 500 MB WAVE WILL LIFT INTO WYOMING
BRINGING CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN WYOMING
BRINGING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE PWAT VALUES
AROUND 200% OF NORMAL. WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH,
WHEN COMBINED WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE, WILL LEAD TO HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL. THIS HAS LED WPC TO ISSUE A RISK LEVEL 1 OF 4 FOR
EXCESSIVE RAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY CREATING FLOODING CONCERNS,
ESPECIALLY NEAR BURN SCARS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY 6 PM. CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST OVER THE
ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS AND SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS WITH THE
NBM GIVING THESE LOCATIONS A 30-50% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 0.5
INCHES OF RAIN. THE CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES KEEP PRECIPITATION
CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE ECMWF SPREADING THEM FARTHER
EAST. LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM ROUNDUP TO
ALZADA HAVE A 15-40% CHANCE OF GETTING GREATER THAN 0.25 INCHES OF
RAIN.
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAINS HIGH FRIDAY DUE TO
WEAK FORCING. PRECIPITATION CLUSTERS SHOW LARGE DISCREPANCIES
WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES INDICATING 0.10-0.25 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATES WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.25-0.50. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WRAPPING AROUND LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE,
LIKELY INDICATING WHAT A HIGH PRECIPITATION SCENARIO MAY LOOK
LIKE. OVERALL, THE NBM IS GIVING SOUTHEAST MONTANA A 25-50% CHANCE
OF GETTING GREATER THAN 0.50 INCHES OF RAIN FOR THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD ENDING 6 AM SATURDAY. TORGERSON
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN EASTERN MT AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FEATURE EXITS
THE REGION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING
BACK RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS NEARLY ALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW HIGHER HEIGHTS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. A QUASI-
CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO MEANDER OFF OF THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
SLOW DOWN THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PROGRESSION. HIGH TEMPS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME ABOUT AS EVEN THE NBM 90%
VALUES ARE ONLY IN THE LOW 90S, OR ROUGHLY 10F ABOVE AVERAGE. ALL
THIS TO DAY, IT SHOULD BE A NICE LABOR DAY WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH MOSTLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
AS WE WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, DUE TO THE LOW OFF THE
COAST, THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THAT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING A QUICK
0.1" OF RAIN. THOSE WITH PLANS IN THE FOOTHILLS, AND ESPECIALLY
THE MOUNTAINS, SHOULD MAKE SURE THEY HAVE SEVERAL RELIABLE WAYS
TO STAY UP TO DATE ON THE FORECAST.
MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A LOT MORE UNCERTAINTY IS
SEEN ACROSS THE MODELS. WHEN LOOKING AT THE CLUSTERS, THERE ARE
PRIMARILY TWO, NEARLY OPPOSITE, SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW UP. THE FIRST
SOLUTION WANTS TO DISSOLVE THE LOW OFF THE COAST AND HAVE THE
RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADE. THIS MAY PUT PARTS OF THE CWA AT RISK
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DUE TO NORTHWEST FLOW USHERING
IN VORT MAXES. THE MOISTURE RETURN, HOWEVER, MAY BE LACKING WHICH
COULD AID IN KEEPING AREAS DRY. THE SECOND, SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORED
SOLUTION, SHOWS THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY STRONGER, OR NOT RETROGRADING
AS MUCH ALLOWING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA TO REMAIN DRY. BE SURE TO
CHECK FUTURE FORECASTS IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
WMR
AVIATION
18Z DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT (KLVM) THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES SOME SHRA MAY MAKE IT
INTO KBIL, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z AND THUS A PROB30 WAS
INCLUDED IN THE TAF. IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT SHOWERS WILL FILL
INTO THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SOME SHOWERS
MOVING OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS AND LIKELY IMPACTING KSHR WHICH IS
WHY A TEMPO IS INCLUDED FROM 23Z TO 03Z. ALL THE PRECIP WILL
OBSCURE MOUNTAINS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. LOCATIONS NOT IN THE
PRECIP MAY SEE SOME MINOR SLANT RANGE VISBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO
SOME WILDFIRE SMOKE. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062/078 059/076 056/081 055/086 057/088 057/084 055/082
36/T 55/T 32/W 10/U 01/U 12/W 22/W
LVM 052/073 049/076 048/080 047/086 050/087 050/083 048/083
58/T 65/T 32/W 11/U 12/W 23/T 22/T
HDN 060/079 056/076 054/080 052/086 053/088 055/084 053/081
35/T 65/T 32/W 10/U 01/U 11/B 21/B
MLS 059/083 060/073 056/077 055/082 056/087 057/084 053/078
02/W 44/T 42/W 10/U 00/U 11/B 21/B
4BQ 062/078 059/073 056/076 055/081 055/085 057/083 054/078
13/T 75/T 43/W 10/U 00/U 11/B 21/U
BHK 053/082 055/072 053/076 052/080 053/084 053/081 049/075
00/B 33/T 42/W 20/U 00/U 11/B 21/B
SHR 055/077 051/076 050/076 049/082 051/085 052/081 050/078
47/T 76/T 44/T 11/U 01/U 12/T 22/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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