602
FXUS65 KBYZ 280812
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
212 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
- THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY (MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE). LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
- FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ELEVATED IN AND NEAR AREA BURN SCARS
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- WARMER AND DRY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
CURRENTLY, A SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST MT IS BRINGING ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS THIS WAVE MOVES EAST
THROUGH THE DAY, SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG) HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE INCREASED
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND THE EXPECTATION OF SLOW MOVING STORMS
STILL IN PLACE, ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN. USE CAUTION IF RECREATING, ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY BURN SCARS.
AS THIS ENERGY SLOWLY TRACKS EAST AND SOUTHEAST, PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION WHERE THE
STRONGEST FORCING IS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS (MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE REGION HAS A 40-70% CHANCE OF GETTING
AT LEAST AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH OF RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S WEST TO MID 80S
EAST. FRIDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION. TS
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH A MEAN RIDGE TO THE WEST, A TROUGH TO THE EAST, AND
OUR AREA SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN THESE REGIMES. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIGGLES OF THESE FEATURES EAST/WEST AS DISTURBANCES DROP IN FROM
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT TIMES. SATURDAY HAS ONE OF THESE SLIGHT
SHIFTS TO THE WEST PUTTING US UNDER A BIT MORE TROUGHING AND
KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. RIDGE PUSHES BACK EASTWARD SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, THOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS NORTHERLY TAKING THE
EDGE OFF OF LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL FROM A BUILDING
RIDGE. HIGHS JUMP INTO THE 80S, WITH SOME UPPER 80S THROWN INTO
THE MIX ,DURING THIS PERIOD AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FALL OFF TO
NEAR ZERO FOR A FEW WARM DAYS.
MODELS STARTING TO REALLY COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH A SURGE OF
UNSEASONABLY COOL CANADIAN AIR DROPPING STRAIGHT SOUTH FROM THE
ARCTIC AND INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER END OF THE
REASONABLE TEMPERATURE RANGE IS DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS, HIGHS COULD BE A BIT COOLER. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW FAR WEST
THIS COLD AIR INTRUSION GOES, STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR A SHIFT
WEST (COOLER) OR EAST (WARMER) WITH THIS SYSTEM. UPSLOPE FLOW AND
AND FRONTAL DYNAMICS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW SOME MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR THURSDAY. CHAMBERS
AVIATION
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MT, INCLUDING NEAR KLVM, KBIL, AND KSHR, INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY
STRONGER RAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE
MVFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ARCHER/TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 060/076 057/079 055/087 057/088 058/083 054/076
6/T 56/T 33/T 10/U 00/U 01/B 11/B
LVM 066 050/077 048/078 048/086 050/087 051/083 046/080
9/T 75/T 42/T 10/U 00/U 12/T 21/U
HDN 080 058/076 054/077 051/086 052/088 054/084 051/075
4/T 66/T 43/T 10/U 00/U 01/B 10/B
MLS 084 060/074 057/076 054/084 055/087 058/083 050/072
1/B 44/T 43/W 10/U 00/U 11/B 10/B
4BQ 077 059/073 057/073 053/081 055/085 057/083 052/070
3/T 65/T 54/T 20/U 00/U 01/U 20/B
BHK 082 055/075 054/074 051/080 052/085 054/081 046/070
0/B 23/W 43/T 20/U 00/U 01/B 10/B
SHR 076 052/075 050/074 048/083 050/085 052/082 048/074
6/T 77/T 55/T 10/U 00/U 01/U 21/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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