244
FXUS65 KBYZ 282001
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
201 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY (MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE). LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
- FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ELEVATED IN AND NEAR AREA BURN SCARS
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- WARMER AND DRY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
A 500 MB WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN WYOMING WILL BRING SOUTHEAST WINDS CREATING A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MOISTURE AXIS OVER MONTANA WITH
PWATS NEAR 1.25 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE AXIS ALIGNS WELL WITH
850-300 MB MEAN WIND CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAIN.
THIS RESULTS IN A RISK LEVEL 1 OF 4 FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
TONIGHT.
AS THE 500 MB WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST, DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
INDICATING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP MOISTURE INTO MONTANA. THIS WILL
CREATE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE A 30-60% CHANCE OF GETTING GREATER
THAN 0.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. BY SUNDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
AND RISING HEIGHTS START TO WORK INTO THE REGION PUSHING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OFF TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 0 TO -5 C. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 70S F FOR MOST. TORGERSON
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH A MEAN RIDGE TO THE WEST, A TROUGH TO THE EAST, AND
OUR AREA SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN THESE REGIMES. THERE WILL BE SOME
WIGGLES OF THESE FEATURES EAST/WEST AS DISTURBANCES DROP IN FROM
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT TIMES. SATURDAY HAS ONE OF THESE SLIGHT
SHIFTS TO THE WEST PUTTING US UNDER A BIT MORE TROUGHING AND
KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. RIDGE PUSHES BACK EASTWARD SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, THOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS NORTHERLY TAKING THE
EDGE OFF OF LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL FROM A BUILDING
RIDGE. HIGHS JUMP INTO THE 80S, WITH SOME UPPER 80S THROWN INTO
THE MIX ,DURING THIS PERIOD AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FALL OFF TO
NEAR ZERO FOR A FEW WARM DAYS.
MODELS STARTING TO REALLY COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH A SURGE OF
UNSEASONABLY COOL CANADIAN AIR DROPPING STRAIGHT SOUTH FROM THE
ARCTIC AND INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY. THE LOWER END OF THE
REASONABLE TEMPERATURE RANGE IS DOWN INTO THE 60S FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS, HIGHS COULD BE A BIT COOLER. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW FAR WEST
THIS COLD AIR INTRUSION GOES, STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR A SHIFT
WEST (COOLER) OR EAST (WARMER) WITH THIS SYSTEM. UPSLOPE FLOW AND
AND FRONTAL DYNAMICS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW SOME MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR THURSDAY. CHAMBERS
AVIATION
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EAST
THIS EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY STRONGER RAIN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE (40-70%)
AT ALL TAF SITES FRIDAY. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TS/TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/074 057/079 055/087 057/088 057/084 055/079 052/083
55/T 32/T 00/U 00/U 01/U 11/B 00/U
LVM 051/075 049/079 048/085 049/086 050/084 049/081 047/082
76/T 32/T 00/U 00/U 02/T 11/U 11/U
HDN 058/075 055/077 051/087 053/088 053/084 052/078 048/082
55/T 43/T 10/U 00/U 01/U 11/B 10/U
MLS 060/075 058/077 055/084 056/088 055/081 051/073 047/079
33/W 33/W 10/U 00/U 11/B 21/B 10/U
4BQ 058/071 057/071 053/079 054/084 055/081 052/072 047/077
64/T 44/T 20/U 00/U 01/U 21/B 10/U
BHK 056/075 053/076 051/080 052/083 053/078 045/070 042/075
23/T 33/T 20/U 00/U 11/B 21/B 10/U
SHR 053/074 050/073 047/082 049/084 050/082 049/076 045/080
57/T 45/T 10/U 00/U 01/U 22/W 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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