943
FXUS65 KBYZ 110302
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
902 PM MDT FRI OCT 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MAIN THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.
- WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS SECONDARY PUSH OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS,
BLUSTERY WINDS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD LEAD
TO LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER. BURN SCARS COULD BE IMPACTED.
- HEAVY SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS COULD CREATE DIFFICULT
BACKCOUNTRY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- FROST/FREEZE FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN NORTHERN WYOMING AND
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT. OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA,
LOOK FOR THE BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE DECREASING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE MOST GUSTS HAVE
BEEN IN THE 20S AND 30S (MPH) SO FAR TODAY, A FEW GUSTS INTO THE
LOW 40S (MPH) ARE POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER HILLS OF FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR A LITTLE WHILE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S, WARMEST OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS. DURING THE MORNING HOURS, A WAVE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS LOOKS TO PROGRESS NORTH OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. HOWEVER, AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OVER
THE PLAINS, IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, A MORE ROBUST WAVE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH ONLY MODEST CAPE (250-500 J/KG), ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB- SEVERE, BUT
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE. WHILE THIS ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING A GOOD, 50 TO 70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE REGION, FAR EASTERN MONTANA
WILL LIKELY MISS OUT AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFT TOO
FAR NORTH. AFTER THIS ROUND, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE, ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, MOVES INTO THE REGION.
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH THIS,
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING AN INITIAL PUSH OF GUSTY WINDS,
PRECIPITATION, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND THE TROUGH WILL BRING
A REINFORCING PUSH OF WINDS, PRECIPITATION, AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES, LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. WITH THIS, THE WHOLE REGION HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIPITATION (65 TO 100 PERCENT CHANCE, GREATEST OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING AND LOWEST OVER FAR
EASTERN MONTANA). BY MID-DAY SUNDAY, MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION,
OUTSIDE OF LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WHERE WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST, ALLOWING
LOCALIZED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE GOES,
RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENT AS THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR NOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. WITH THAT SAID,
WHERE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER (MAINLY MELVILLE THROUGH
JUDITH GAP), PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY (70 PERCENT CHANCE) SWITCH
OVER TO LIGHT SNOW BY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION (RAIN OR
MELTED SNOW) AMOUNTS GO, AROUND 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING AND
AROUND 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES ARE FORECAST OVER FAR SOUTH-EASTERN
MONTANA. OVER THE MOUNTAINS, SNOW WILL INITIALLY FALL MAINLY ABOVE
10,000 FEET ON SATURDAY BEFORE SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 6,000
FEET EARLY SUNDAY. AS FAR AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS
GO, ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 14 INCHES IN THE CRAZY MOUNTAINS, 5 TO
10 INCHES IN THE ABSAROKA- BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS, AND 3 TO 6 INCHES
IN THE BIGHORN AND PRYOR MOUNTAINS ARE FORECAST. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR THE CRAZY MOUNTAINS REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, LOOK FOR NORTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 40 MPH TO BE COMMON. WHILE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY
DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, MIXING DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY WINDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS IN
THE 20S TO 40S MPH EXPECTED AGAIN, STRONGEST IN FAR EASTERN
MONTANA. WHILE POSSIBLE, THE CHANCE OF SEEING A 50 MPH GUST
REMAINS LOWER AT THIS TIME IN EASTERN MONTANA.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE 20S AND 30S.
AFTER A BREAK IN THE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY THE MIDDLE TO SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THOUGH, SO STAY TUNED.
ARENDS
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING 20-30 KTS OVER EASTERN MT (KMLS, KBHK, K97M), WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
SATURDAY AS A LARGE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. MVR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MOUNTAIN SNOW AND OBSCURATIONS WILL
INCREASE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051/078 041/049 031/047 030/051 035/059 038/056 039/061
07/T 98/W 21/B 01/B 11/U 33/W 32/W
LVM 047/070 033/048 026/042 026/052 031/059 033/055 034/057
28/T 97/W 42/J 11/B 22/W 44/W 33/W
HDN 045/080 040/050 029/052 028/052 032/061 035/057 036/062
14/T 99/W 10/B 01/B 11/U 44/W 32/W
MLS 051/081 042/051 027/049 031/056 034/061 038/060 039/062
00/U 89/W 10/U 00/U 11/U 23/W 21/B
4BQ 052/079 043/052 030/051 035/058 036/064 040/061 040/063
10/B 48/W 10/U 00/B 11/U 33/W 21/U
BHK 049/080 041/052 023/049 030/058 033/062 038/062 038/063
10/U 37/W 10/U 00/B 11/U 23/W 21/U
SHR 046/078 036/051 026/053 030/057 031/064 035/059 035/063
01/B 89/W 10/U 11/U 12/W 44/W 32/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 68.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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