833
FXUS65 KBYZ 112059
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
259 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAIN THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WIND.
- WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS SECONDARY PUSH OF MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION, BLUSTERY WINDS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN COULD IMPACT BURN SCARS OR LEAD TO
LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER.
- HEAVY SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS COULD CREATE DIFFICULT
BACKCOUNTRY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- FROST/FREEZE FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TODAY IS THE LAST DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TO 80 DEGREES, WARMEST OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH AND INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT FLOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES FROM THE WEST, THERE WERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WEST OF
BILLINGS THIS MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON, A MORE ROBUST WAVE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING.
WITH ONLY MODEST CAPE (250-500 J/KG) AND SHEAR (AROUND 30 KNOTS),
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE, BUT GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
SMALL HAIL. WHILE THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MAINLY IMPACT SOUTH- CENTRAL MONTANA (60 TO 85 PERCENT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION), FAR EASTERN MONTANA WILL LIKELY MISS OUT AS STORM
MOTIONS LOOK TO TRACK TOO FAR TO THE NORTH. BY THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT, THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION,
WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW, TO THE
AREA. WITH THIS, THE CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION IS HIGH (60 TO
100 PERCENT CHANCE, GREATEST OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL MONTANA, LOWEST
OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA).
BY MID-DAY SUNDAY, MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LIFTED TO
THE NORTHEAST, OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS GENERALLY WEST
OF BILLINGS, AND BLUSTERY WINDS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY FOCUS
ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLDER AIR. THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES WILL RESULT IN
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 35 MPH FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH
GUSTS IN THE 40S TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO
THE DAKOTAS (MODERATE CHANCE OF 50 MPH OR GREATER GUSTS IN FAR
EASTERN MONTANA). HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY
WITH READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION, LIKELY BRINGING A
FROST/FREEZE TO MOST LOCATIONS. STUBBORN STRATUS MAY PREVENT SOME
AREAS FROM DROPPING QUITE THAT LOW THOUGH (BILLINGS 50%, MILES
CITY 70%, AND BAKER, SHERIDAN, LIVINGSTON 95% CHANCE OF FREEZE).
WHILE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER BY MID-DAY SUNDAY, AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, WINDS AT THE SURFACE LOOK TO TURN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALLOWING WEAK UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION TO BUILD IN OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
GENERALLY WEST OF BILLINGS. WITH THIS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS LIGHT SNOW BOTH IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE FOOTHILLS/PLAINS. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST DAY FOR MOST WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
OVER THE FOOTHILLS/PLAINS WEST OF BILLINGS, THE PERSISTENT STRATUS
DECK WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POTENTIALLY STRUGGLING TO REACH 40 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF DROPPING BELOW FREEZING ONCE
AGAIN IN SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING AS SKIES
CLEAR.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GO WITH THIS EVENT, GENERALLY
0.50 TO 1.0 INCHES OF LIQUID (RAIN AND MELTED SNOW) ARE FORECAST
OVER MUCH OF SOUTH- CENTRAL MONTANA AND THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS,
WITH 0.10 TO 0.50 INCHES OVER THE PLAINS OF FAR EASTERN MONTANA
AND NORTHERN WYOMING. AS FAR AS SNOW GOES, SNOW LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM 10,000 TO 11,000 FEET TODAY TOWARDS
5,500 FEET SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO DROP NEAR
THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THIS, GENERALLY 5 TO 10 INCHES
OF SNOW ARE FORECAST OVER THE ABSAROKA-BEARTOOTH AND CRAZY
MOUNTAINS, AND 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS ABOVE
GENERALLY 9,000 FEET. BELOW THIS, AMOUNTS ARE LESS. OVER THE
FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS, SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED A BIT FOR
THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY PERIOD, WITH A TRACE TO 2 INCHES
FORECAST, GREATEST AROUND MELVILLE. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS ALONG
HIGHWAY 191 DURING THIS TIME SHOULD PREPARE FOR SOME WINTRY
CONDITIONS.
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS DOWN ALONG
THE WEST COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH OUR REGION, IN SOME FASHION, BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
WHILE THE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S WITH INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO MID-WEEK. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
PLAYS A BIG ROLE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST THOUGH, SO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES. ARENDS
AVIATION
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BRING GUSTY NW
WINDS OF 30-40KTS. MORE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT BRINGING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY NW WINDS 30-40KTS, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 45KTS IN EASTERN MT (KMLS, KBHK). MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 12Z WITH CONDITIONS
GENERALLY IMPROVING THROUGH THE MORNING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 043/053 032/044 032/049 037/051 040/051 038/056 037/054
+3/W 11/E 11/B 34/W 66/W 42/W 32/W
LVM 033/052 026/040 025/050 030/051 031/048 030/052 029/052
+4/W 52/J 13/W 46/W 76/W 43/W 43/W
HDN 040/054 029/050 030/053 034/055 038/052 035/057 034/054
+4/W 10/B 11/B 34/W 76/W 53/W 42/W
MLS 043/052 029/050 037/059 039/060 042/054 037/057 036/053
96/W 00/U 11/B 24/W 65/W 42/W 22/W
4BQ 042/054 030/055 040/061 042/064 042/054 037/055 036/052
56/W 00/U 11/B 13/T 65/W 32/W 22/W
BHK 040/054 023/051 032/055 037/058 039/056 034/057 032/053
34/W 00/U 11/B 13/W 65/W 32/W 11/B
SHR 036/056 025/053 030/058 033/061 034/051 030/056 031/053
95/W 00/U 11/B 23/W 66/W 43/W 43/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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