050
FXUS65 KBYZ 240058
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
658 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM & DRY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
- GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS (E.G. LIVINGSTON) LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
- TURNING COOLER, BREEZY AND UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET.
UPDATE
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BRING US QUIET WEATHER. LOOK FOR
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE 30S TO MID 40S...COOLEST
IN THE VALLEYS OF COURSE. AS THE RIDGE AXIS (CURRENTLY TO OUR
WEST) BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST WE WILL BEGIN TO DRAW WARMER AIR
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. GIVEN OVERACHIEVING TEMPS/MINRHS TODAY AND THE WARMING
AIR MASS OVERALL, HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS AND DROPPED TDS/RHS A
LITTLE FOR TOMORROW. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. JKL
DISCUSSION
THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY
INTO SATURDAY.
LATE FRIDAY, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH, A FAVORABLE
PATTERN FOR GAP WINDS OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS IS EXPECTED TO
SET UP. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS AN 80% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS ABOVE
50 MPH AND A 40% CHANCE FOR GUSTS ABOVE 60 MPH OVER THE
LIVINGSTON/NYE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LATE SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC TROUGH ENTERS
THE REGION, BRINGING COOLING TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
DOWN FOR PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. OVER THE PLAINS AND
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS, THERE IS GENERALLY ONLY A 40-60% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST 0.10" OF LIQUID PRECIP LATE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
HIGHEST TOTALS REMAIN OVER THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS, WITH
A 50% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7,000 FT.
AS TEMPERATURES COOL, SNOW LEVELS WILL DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THERE IS A 10%
CHANCE FOR SNOW LEVELS TO FALL TO 3,000 FT AND LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, THE CHANCE INCREASES TO 20%. AS A
RESULT, A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW MAY OCCUR OVER THE FOOTHILLS
(10-30% OF UP TO 0.50") AND FEW SNOWFLAKES MAY BE SEEN OVER LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
AFTER THE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION TUESDAY, RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A FEW DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY KEEP A LOW (10-20% CHANCE) OF
PRECIPITATION, ALTHOUGH THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS
ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.
HIGHS REMAIN AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
THEN, WITH THE TROUGH MOVING IN, HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
FROM 50S TO LOW 60S SUNDAY TO GENERALLY 40S TUESDAY. AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN AGAIN, HIGHS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR NORMAL, IN THE 50S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS, FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ARCHER
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, UNDER
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/068 043/068 043/056 035/051 032/049 031/055 036/057
00/U 00/B 13/W 32/W 21/B 11/B 12/W
LVM 035/068 042/066 036/052 028/045 025/046 026/055 033/054
00/U 00/N 64/W 43/W 41/B 11/B 22/W
HDN 033/069 036/071 042/058 033/052 030/050 027/056 030/057
00/U 00/B 14/W 32/W 32/W 11/B 12/W
MLS 033/067 036/070 044/058 036/053 031/049 028/054 033/056
00/U 00/B 03/W 22/W 21/B 11/U 11/B
4BQ 035/068 040/072 045/059 036/052 032/047 029/054 033/055
00/U 00/U 02/W 22/W 21/B 11/U 11/B
BHK 031/066 036/071 041/061 033/053 027/048 026/053 029/054
00/U 00/U 01/B 22/W 21/B 11/B 11/B
SHR 031/069 035/071 039/058 030/050 026/046 025/055 029/058
00/U 00/B 04/W 32/W 22/W 11/U 12/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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