145
FXUS65 KBYZ 240856
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
256 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS 60S TO LOWER 70S.
- GUSTY GAP WINDS AROUND LIVINGSTON TO NYE THIS EVENING INTO
SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS 45 TO 55 MPH. MODERATE CHANCE OF 60 MPH.
- WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES, BREEZY CONDITIONS,
AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S, WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNDER CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LATE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC
TROUGH, A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR GAP WINDS AROUND LIVINGSTON TO NYE
IS EXPECTED TO SET UP. AT THIS POINT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS
TO PEAK AROUND 10MB, WITH 700MB WIND GUSTS REACHING 30 KNOTS
UNDER A FAVORABLE INVERSION. WITH THIS, GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE
LIKELY, BUT THE CHANCE OF SEEING A 60 MPH WIND GUST REMAINS LOWER,
AROUND 45 PERCENT.
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ONCE AGAIN. WHILE DEEP MIXING OVER THE
FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS WILL END THE PURE GAP WINDS AROUND
LIVINGSTON TO NYE, GUSTY MIX DOWN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THIS, THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO THIS MAY ACTUALLY BE
WHEN THE LIVINGSTON TO NYE AREAS SEE THEIR STRONGEST WINDS. OVER
BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON, BREEZY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED SATURDAY,
BUT THE CHANCE OF SEEING A 50 MPH WIND GUSTS REMAINS LOW. WHILE
BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL LIMIT STABILITY AND THE CHANCE FOR ANY
STRONG GAP WINDS TO RE-DEVELOP AROUND LIVINGSTON TO NYE.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THIS,
COOLER TEMPERATURES, BREEZY WINDS, AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA (50 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE). AS YOU MOVE EAST
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
DECREASES TO AROUND 15 TO 35 PERCENT, GREATEST AROUND THE PRYOR,
BIGHORN, AND WOLF MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT MAY
OCCUR. WHILE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY LATER SUNDAY,
AN SECONDARY PUSH OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AS THE BACK
SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INITIAL COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. WITH THIS, PRECIPITATION MAY BE
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS, BUT THERE ARE A FEW MEMBER IN
THE ENSEMBLES THAT CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THEREFORE, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS
ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY (15 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE, GREATEST
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA).
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE GOES, LOOK FOR ALL SNOW TO FALL IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS TIME, THE CHANCE OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF
SNOW IS HIGH, AROUND 60 TO 80 PERCENT, OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE ABSAROKA-BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS. THE CHANCE OF 12 OR MORE
INCHES OR SNOW IS LOW, AROUND 30 PERCENT. MUCH LESS SNOW IS
FORECAST OVER THE BIGHORN AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS, WITH THE CHANCE OF
SEEING 4 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW BEING 50 PERCENT IN THE CRAZY
MOUNTAINS AND 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. OVER THE
FOOTHILLS, PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS RAIN, BUT SNOW
LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP AROUND 5,000 FEET SUNDAY AND 4,000
FEET MONDAY. THEREFORE, LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FOOTHILLS DURING THIS TIME (MODERATE CHANCE OF AT LEAST A
TRACE). OVER THE PLAINS, RAIN IS EXPECTED AS THE CHANCE OF SEEING
SNOW REMAINS LOW WITH THERE ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING
SNOW LEVELS DROP AS LOW AS 3,000 FEET BY MONDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS
OVER THE PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE A BIT, BUT OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S TO 60.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON IMPACTS (WIND AND
PRECIPITATION OR JUST WIND). ARENDS
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GAP
WINDS AROUND KLVM WILL INCREASE AROUND 03Z SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 35-45 KNOTS. PM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 068 043/065 043/057 036/051 031/051 033/058 037/058
0/U 00/B 12/W 22/W 21/U 11/B 11/B
LVM 068 041/066 035/052 029/044 023/049 030/058 033/057
0/U 00/N 54/W 43/W 21/U 11/B 11/B
HDN 069 036/069 042/058 033/052 029/051 028/059 032/058
0/U 00/B 13/W 22/W 21/U 11/B 11/B
MLS 067 036/067 043/059 036/053 031/051 030/057 034/056
0/U 00/B 02/W 22/W 11/U 11/B 11/B
4BQ 068 039/068 045/057 036/052 031/049 030/056 034/057
0/U 00/U 03/W 22/W 11/U 11/U 00/B
BHK 066 036/070 041/059 032/052 027/050 026/056 030/056
0/U 00/U 02/W 22/W 21/U 00/U 00/B
SHR 069 035/069 038/057 030/049 025/049 025/059 030/058
0/U 00/B 04/W 23/W 21/U 11/U 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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