517
FXUS65 KBYZ 250336
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
936 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY INTO SATURDAY. HIGHS 60S TO LOWER 70S.
- GUSTY GAP WINDS AROUND LIVINGSTON TO NYE THIS EVENING INTO
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS 45
TO 60 MPH.
- WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES, BREEZY CONDITIONS,
AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE CHANCE OF GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL IN THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS.
UPDATE
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TONIGHT,
THOUGH WE ARE SEEING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST WITH AN UPSTREAM TROF ALONG THE PACNW
COAST. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS WITH REGARD TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE
IN GAP FLOW TONIGHT. 03Z IDA-LWT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ~9MB AND
700MB WINDS ARE ONLY 15-20 KNOTS, SO THUS FAR WINDS ARE FAIRLY
TAME, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S (MPH) AT THE LIVINGSTON DOT SITES
BUT ONLY 20S AND 30S AT THE AIRPORT AND NEAR NYE. INCREASING MID
LEVEL FLOW AND A TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENTS WILL ALLOW GUSTS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTS TO 50+ MPH ARE STILL LIKELY (60%
CHANCE) BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY, AND PER THE STABILITY CANNOT
RULE OUT 60 MPH GUSTS (30% CHANCE). STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW EVENING. FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL
MAKE NO CHANGE TO THE WIND ADVISORY ALREADY ISSUED. WILL ALSO NEED
TO MONITOR WIND POTENTIAL WITHIN THE PARADISE VALLEY DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS TOMORROW, AS MIXED SW WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED.
MODEL SOUNDINGS AT EMIGRANT SHOW 50 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER, SUGGESTING 50 MPH GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR. JKL
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THURSDAY...
AS A LARGE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE PAC NW, PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS STARTING THIS
EVENING. THAT, ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
AN INITIAL PERIOD OF GAP WINDS FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE THIS
EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER
REMAIN LIKELY, WITH A MODERATE CHANCE AT 60 MPH (50%).
SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH,
WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE, BUT WITH DEEP MIXING
EXPECTED WEST OF BILLINGS BY AFTERNOON, GUSTY MIX DOWN WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICKUP THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
LIVINGSTON TO NYE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50
MPH ARE LIKELY, WITH A MODERATE CHANCE AT 60 MPH. HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LIVINGSTON AREA AND BEARTOOTH
FOOTHILLS STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 3AM
SUNDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS, BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS AND SHOWERS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
(50-80%) ON WEST FACING ASPECTS, WITH LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA (15-35%). BEHIND THE INITIAL PERIOD OF
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, ANOTHER WAVE OF
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH WYOMING SUNDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, POTENTIALLY SPREADING OUT ONTO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH MONDAY. WITH REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION, SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH MAINLY RAIN
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS. SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO DROP FROM BETWEEN 5-6K FT ON
SUNDAY, TO AS LOW AS 4K FT MONDAY. THE RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE
FOOTHILLS WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BY MONDAY, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST HILLS IN THE SOUTHEAST AS
WELL. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS, WITH LESS IN THE CRAZIES AND
BIGHORNS. PROBABILITY OF 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS AROUND
60-80%, WHILE A FOOT MORE REMAINS LOW (30% OR LESS). AN INCH OR
LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE FOOTHILLS.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
(PROBABILITY FOR 0.25 INCHES OR MORE OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
20% OR LESS).
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE A BIT, BUT OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HINT AT A FRONTAL SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH
THE AREA OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY, WHICH COULD BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES, WIND AND PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE REMAINS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. STP
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SW WINDS TO INCREASE STEADILY AT
KLVM TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF 35-45 KNOTS OVERNIGHT, AND NEAR 50
KNOTS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/068 044/057 035/051 031/051 033/060 035/054 032/057
00/B 13/W 22/W 11/U 11/B 11/B 10/B
LVM 043/067 035/051 029/046 024/049 030/058 029/052 029/056
00/N 64/W 53/J 21/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
HDN 036/071 041/058 032/053 029/052 029/060 032/053 028/057
00/B 13/W 33/W 21/B 11/B 21/B 11/B
MLS 036/069 043/058 033/053 030/052 029/058 034/052 028/054
00/U 03/W 22/W 10/U 01/B 21/B 10/B
4BQ 039/071 046/058 035/051 031/050 030/058 034/051 029/054
00/U 03/W 23/W 11/U 00/B 11/U 10/B
BHK 036/071 041/060 031/052 027/050 025/055 029/050 025/052
00/U 01/B 33/W 10/U 00/B 11/B 10/B
SHR 033/071 039/057 027/050 025/049 025/060 028/052 026/055
00/B 03/W 34/W 11/U 01/B 11/B 10/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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