725
FXUS65 KBYZ 250942
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
342 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY TODAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
- GUSTY WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS
TODAY INTO SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS 40 TO 60 MPH, STRONGEST AROUND
LIVINGSTON TO NYE AND IN THE PARADISE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
- WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES, BREEZY CONDITIONS,
AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. BEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE ABSAROKA-BEARTOOTH
MOUNTAINS (6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW).
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TODAY IS ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. AROUND
LIVINGSTON TO NYE, THE GUSTY WINDS ONGOING THIS MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE A BIT MID-MORNING BEFORE INCREASING ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS. WITH
THIS, THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN GUSTS INTO THE 50S (MPH) ARE LIKELY. AS
FAR AS THE CHANCE OF SEEING A 60 MPH WIND GUST GOES, THE CHANCE
REMAINS MODERATE AROUND 65 PERCENT. BY TONIGHT, THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WITH ALL THAT SAID, THE WIND ADVISORY THAT IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 3AM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE LIVINGSTON AREA AND BEARTOOTH
FOOTHILLS REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
OUTSIDE OF THE LIVINGSTON TO NYE AREA, GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE PARADISE VALLEY TODAY, MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AT THIS TIME, THE CHANCE OF SEEING 50
MPH WIND GUSTS IS HIGH, BUT THE CHANCE OF SEEING A 60 MPH GUST IS
A BIT LOWER AROUND 50 PERCENT. IF WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE GOING
TO OCCUR, THE WINDOW LOOKS TO BE SHORT, GENERALLY BETWEEN 3PM AND
6PM MDT THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. AROUND BIG
TIMBER TO HARLOWTON, BREEZY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TODAY, BUT THE
CHANCE OF SEEING A 50 MPH GUST REMAINS LOW.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES, BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. AS FAR AS
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION GOES, THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY (50 TO 80 PERCENT
CHANCE). ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY (15 TO 40
PERCENT). BEHIND THE INITIAL PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION, ANOTHER WAVE
OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. THIS ALLOWS THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN, THIS TIME WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS, FAR SOUTH-EASTERN MONTANA, AND
NORTHERN WYOMING (40 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE). WITH REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGH THIS EVENT, ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS. OVER THE FOOTHILLS, AN INITIAL RAIN/SNOW MIX IS
EXPECTED BEFORE SNOW LEVELS DROP LOW ENOUGH TO FAVOR SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, MAINLY RAIN IS
FORECAST. WITH THAT SAID, SNOW LEVELS DO LOOK TO DROP AROUND 4,000
FEET LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SO LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER HILLS OF THE PLAINS. WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS,
MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY SEE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS (RAIN
OR SNOW). HOWEVER, A TRACE TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST FOR MANY FOOTHILL LOCATIONS, WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
IN THE BIGHORN AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS AND 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IN
THE ABSAROKA-BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
MODERATE A BIT, BUT OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A FAST MOVING TROUGH LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE. WHILE IMPACTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, WIND LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MODELED DEPTH OF THE TROUGH
DOES NOT FAVOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT. ARENDS
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY SW
WINDS BETWEEN 35-45 KNOTS AROUND KLVM WILL PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTS TO INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KNOTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE FORECAST, ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN
SNOW. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED TONIGHT. PM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 068 044/057 035/051 030/053 034/062 035/055 034/061
0/B 12/W 32/W 10/U 01/B 11/B 00/B
LVM 067 035/051 028/046 023/052 031/061 030/055 031/058
0/N 52/W 52/J 10/U 01/B 11/B 00/B
HDN 071 042/057 032/051 028/054 029/062 030/055 028/061
0/B 13/W 43/W 10/U 01/B 21/B 10/B
MLS 069 044/059 033/051 029/054 030/060 033/054 029/060
0/U 02/W 43/W 10/U 01/B 10/U 00/B
4BQ 071 046/058 036/050 031/052 030/060 033/054 031/058
0/U 02/W 43/W 10/U 00/U 10/B 00/B
BHK 071 042/060 032/049 027/051 025/057 029/053 026/058
0/U 01/N 44/W 10/U 00/B 10/U 00/B
SHR 071 040/057 027/048 025/051 026/062 028/054 028/060
0/U 03/W 53/W 10/U 01/U 11/B 10/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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