672
FXUS65 KBYZ 270131
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
731 PM MDT SUN OCT 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY,
AND BREEZY W-NW WINDS TOMORROW; MOUNTAIN SNOW.
- A MIX WITH WET SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE
HIGHER HILLS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 8
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6,000 FT.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND
INCREASING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS (PER BACKING 700MB WINDS) OVER
SOUTHEAST MT THIS EVENING, AND PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED IN CARTER
COUNTY. WE ARE LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF RAIN (WET SNOW ABOVE
4500FT?) ALONG AND EAST OF A SHERIDAN TO MILES CITY LINE TONIGHT,
WITH GREATEST PRECIP AMOUNTS OF 0.20-0.30" LIKELY TO OCCUR IN A
SW-NE BAND IN AND NEAR CARTER COUNTY. BIGHORN MOUNTAIN WEB CAMERAS
ARE SHOWING SOME SNOW NOW, BUT THERE WILL BE A BREAK AFTER THIS
EVENING, UNTIL NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST TOMORROW.
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW IN THE BIGHORNS IS TOMORROW WHEN
FRONTAL WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW PROVIDING UPSLOPE, ALONG WITH
REASONABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES. WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE BIGHORN MTNS. FOR REMAINING
LOWER ELEVATIONS (INCLUDING BILLINGS), MOST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE
DRY AS WE AWAIT THE ENERGY TO OUR WEST. LIVINGSTON AND FOOTHILLS
AREAS OF OUR WEST SHOULD SEE SOME WET SNOW EARLY TOMORROW AND THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, BUT SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARM
ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH (IF ANY) STICKING. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF
SNOW/RAIN SHOWER AT BILLINGS MONDAY MORNING, BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY
THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP THE METRO AREA DRY. SPEAKING OF
DOWNSLOPE FLOW, POST-FRONTAL W-NW WINDS WILL BE BRISK TOMORROW,
GUSTING 25-40 MPH ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE WIND AND TEMPS IN
THE 40S, MONDAY WILL FEEL CHILLY. JKL
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
TONIGHT, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF WYOMING BRINGING
PRECIPITATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL
ALIGN ALONG A 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS BAND IN FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
MONDAY MORNING CREATING THE CHANCE (10-20%) OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OVER THE HIGHER HILLS EAST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY. THERE IS A 30-60%
CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 0.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FOR A LINE
SOUTH AND EAST OF FORT SMITH TO MILES CITY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY MORNING, AS THE WYOMING LOW IS MOVING OF TO THE EAST, A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-50%) TO MUCH OF
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE HIGH 20S TO LOW 30S F BRINGING SNOW AND RAIN/SNOW MIX
DURING THE MORNING HOURS CHANGING TO RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
ALL SNOW WILL FALL IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANGING TO
RAIN DURING THE DAY FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THESE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COME TO AN END MONDAY EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE A 20-30% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 0.25 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FRONT. LOCATIONS ALONG THE
ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS HAVE A 10-20% CHANCE OF GETTING
GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL. THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS
HAVE A 20-40% CHANCE OF GETTING GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
WITH A 10-20% CHANCE IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS.
MONDAY WILL SEE 700 MB WINDS OF 30-40 KTS AND DEEP MIXING LEAD TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS IN
THE 30S MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCES
(30-50%) FOR A WIND GUST OVER 50 MPH BEING LOCATIONS WEST OF A
LINE FROM WHEATLAND COUNTY TO SHERIDAN COUNTY WYOMING.
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 F.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING EXPECTED IN WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 F. A COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY WILL
DECREASE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 40S F FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND REACHING THE 60S F BY
SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
TORGERSON
AVIATION
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT, BUT
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF A KSHR-KMLS LINE,
WHERE LOCAL MVFR IS EXPECTED. THERE MAY ALSO BE FOG IN FAR
SOUTHEAST MT BETWEEN 09-15Z, BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
AND WILL DEPEND ON TONIGHT'S PRECIPITATION. BY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY, SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD IN FROM
THE WEST AND CONTINUE OFF-AND-ON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LOCATIONS
NEAR THE FOOTHILLS (I.E. KLVM & KSHR) ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED. ALSO ON MONDAY, A
MORNING COLD FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BRISK W-NW WINDS GUSTING
25-35 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/049 030/049 027/055 031/053 031/058 043/063 041/058
35/W 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/B 12/W 22/W
LVM 031/044 020/046 023/057 027/054 029/058 039/062 039/059
66/J 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 23/W 32/W
HDN 036/049 028/049 022/055 028/053 028/058 038/065 037/057
47/W 10/U 00/B 10/U 00/B 23/W 32/W
MLS 038/051 032/050 024/053 029/052 028/055 038/063 039/057
45/W 10/U 00/B 00/U 00/U 12/W 21/B
4BQ 038/047 031/045 024/052 030/052 029/055 038/062 039/057
87/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 12/W 21/B
BHK 034/049 028/047 020/052 026/052 026/053 031/060 034/056
86/W 10/N 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/N 21/N
SHR 034/045 023/045 017/055 026/052 026/056 033/064 035/060
77/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 13/W 22/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
ZONE 198.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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