587
FXUS65 KBYZ 291021
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
421 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT BRINGS BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. GAP WINDS FOR LIVINGSTON AND NYE THIS MORNING.
- COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR HALLOWEEN, TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONGEST ON
SUNDAY.
UPDATE
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED TO THE POINT OF ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND LIVINGSTON AREA, WITH WIND GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH. THIS ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT NOW AND ENDS AT NOON
TODAY.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MATOS
DISCUSSION
THROUGH TUESDAY...
RIDGING CONTINUES INTO THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE A SHORTWAVE AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 50S TO 60F TODAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE PRETTY
DRY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A 10% CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR TWO IN THE FAR
EAST.
THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS TO EXPECT TODAY ARE BREEZY WINDS IN THE
FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS AND THE GAP WIND LOCATIONS. A FAVORABLE
GRADIENT IS DEVELOPING FOR THE LIVINGSTON AND NYE GAP WIND FLOW,
HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS HAVE YET TO PICK UP THROUGH THOSE AREAS. THIS
WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING, AS THE PROBABILITY FOR
GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH IS 80%. THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO SHIFT TO
A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION BY MID-DAY, BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
HARLOWTON. WHILE THIS W-E GRADIENT TYPICALLY FAVORS BIG TIMBER AS
WELL, THE 700MB FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT, HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR
HARLOWTON, AND GUSTS IN THE 30S AND 40S MPH FOR BIG TIMBER.
FOR FURTHER CROSSWIND PROBABILITIES, VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/BYZ/HIGHWAY_CROSSWINDS
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN DROPPING IN THROUGH THE
NW ZONES, BY THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING
GUSTS 20S TO 40 MPH (HIGHEST NORTH AND WEST OF BILLINGS) ACROSS
THE AREA WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE
WRAPS UP INTO AN UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA ON THURSDAY,
EVENTUALLY DROPPING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY
WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-40 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 40S AND 50S ON THURSDAY.
RIDGING BRIEFLY REBUILDS FOR FRIDAY, BRINGING DRY, BUT COOL
CONDITIONS FOR HALLOWEEN WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS
LOOK TO BE LIGHT AS WELL.
THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER BEGINS PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR PRESSURE GRADIENTS TO TIGHTEN ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS,
FAVORING LIVINGSTON TO NYE. CONFIDENCE FOR WINDS TO REACH 50 MPH
IS MODERATE AT THIS TIME. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO POINT TO A
POTENTIAL PERIOD OF INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN,
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS 10 TO 40% CHANCE. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON WINDY CONDITIONS, SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IF RIDGING
PREVAILS OVER ZONAL FLOW, WINDIER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. MATOS/STP
AVIATION
GAP WINDS WILL IMPACT KLVM THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS.
A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL THEN BRING BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS WITH THE FRONT LOOK TO BE
OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE TEENS AND 20S (KNOTS) AT MOST
PLACES, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30S AND 40S KNOTS AROUND K3HT AND K6S0.
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, LIGHT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND
KMLS, KBHK, AND K97M LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE
CHANCE REMAINS LOW (10 PERCENT). ARENDS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060 034/053 028/050 033/062 045/059 035/053 034/058
0/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 13/W 11/B 11/B
LVM 060 025/051 025/056 035/063 038/057 030/053 033/058
0/N 00/U 00/U 11/N 33/W 11/B 11/B
HDN 059 029/053 024/048 027/063 040/059 032/053 030/057
0/B 00/U 00/B 10/B 23/W 10/B 11/B
MLS 057 034/053 025/044 026/059 043/059 033/053 032/057
1/B 00/N 00/U 00/B 11/B 00/U 10/B
4BQ 056 034/050 026/044 026/059 041/059 034/053 033/057
0/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 02/W 00/U 00/B
BHK 053 029/050 022/041 020/056 037/059 029/053 029/057
0/B 10/N 00/B 00/B 01/N 00/U 00/B
SHR 059 026/050 022/048 025/062 037/060 027/052 030/059
0/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 13/W 10/U 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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