924
FXUS65 KBYZ 300131
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
731 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT BRINGS BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA
ON THURSDAY.
- COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY EVENING.
- WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN FIRST TO LIVINGSTON-NYE CORRIDOR
SATURDAY, THEN TO THE REST OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
UPDATE
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AHEAD AND ALONG THIS FRONT THIS
EVENING WILL GUST INTO THE 30S AND 40S MPH WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS OCCURING NEAR THE HARLOWTOWN AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE OVERNIGHT FOR THESE AREAS. A CLEAR AND DRY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH 20S TO LOW 30S F.
TORGERSON
DISCUSSION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND
BEHIND THIS FRONT, WINDS WILL GUST TO 30-45 MPH OVER MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON. THEN FOR THIS EVENING,
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH 12Z HREF SHOWING A 10-30% CHANCE OF
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN SOUTHEAST MT AFTER 9PM AND A 10% CHANCE
OF 40 MPH GUSTS IN SHERIDAN COUNTY. ANY WIND SHOULD DECREASE
OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
500 MB RIDGING LOOKS TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS. NEARBY OUR REGION, A 500 MB LOW WILL MOVE
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TO THE DAKOTAS
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL FACILITATE WINDY CONDITIONS IN
SOUTHEAST MT FROM STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENTS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. NBM SUGGESTS THAT THESE WIND GUSTS SHOULD REACH 40-50 MPH
IN THIS AREA MAINLY FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ITEM TO NOTE IS THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL BE ADVECTING COOLER AIR INTO SOUTHEAST MT.
850 MB TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE BELOW 0C IN SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, AND THIS COOL AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO EASTERN MT AND BE NOTICEABLE ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO EXCEED 40F THERE.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL FACILITATE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY OVER OUR AREA AND MODEST
WARMING FOR SATURDAY.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, SOME ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF WIND
LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
UNCERTAINTY WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS MOVING THE LOCATION OF A BELT OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT IN OUR REGION. PREVIOUS MODEL PROJECTIONS
INVOLVED LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS AND AN AREA OF GREATER HEIGHT
UNCERTAINTY AT 00Z SUNDAY OVER NORTHERN MT AND SOUTHERN CANADA BUT
MORE RECENT ENSEMBLE DATA HAS SHIFTED THE MEAN HEIGHT PATTERN AND
AREA OF GREATER UNCERTAINTY AT 00Z SUNDAY NORTHWARD INTO CANADA.
HOWEVER, FOR 00Z MONDAY, THERE IS STILL AN AREA OF GREATER
UNCERTAINTY IN 500 MB HEIGHTS OVER MONTANA. ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THIS 500 MB HEIGHT UNCERTAINTY IS RELATED TO
ENSEMBLES HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND RIDGES OVER THE
PACIFIC OCEAN AND WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
RIGHT NOW THE AREA THAT WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE STRONGER WINDS
FIRST DURING THIS SATURDAY-SUNDAY PERIOD IS THE LIVINGSTON-NYE
FOOTHILLS SATURDAY (MODERATE CONFIDENCE) AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WITH MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH IN THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
NBM ALSO SHOWS A 20-40% CHANCE OF LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 8000 TO
9000 FEET. ANY SHOWERS WOULD BE LIGHT.
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, ENSEMBLES MAINLY AGREE ON A 500 MB RIDGE IN
THE AREA, THOUGH DIFFER ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE. A STRONGER
RIDGE COULD MEAN LESS WIND AS THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WOULD BE
SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA, WHILE A WEAKER RIDGE COULD MEAN
MORE WIND AS THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE OVER OUR AREA
FACILITATING LEE TROUGHING AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY (COLDEST FRIDAY IN SOUTHEAST MT, WHERE SOME LOCATIONS
MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S) THEN 50S AND 60S SATURDAY. UNCERTAINTY
IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST INCREASES MARKEDLY FOR SUNDAY
DUE TO TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH NBM 10TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE
VALUES AT BILLINGS RANGING FROM 50F TO 69F. MONDAY SHOULD MAINLY
BE IN THE 40S TO 50S (LESS UNCERTAINTY). UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM
THE 40S TO THE 60S.
FOR TEMPERATURES FRIDAY EVENING, NBM SHOWS 6PM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN FALLON/CARTER COUNTIES TO 40S OVER MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY 9PM, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
DROP TO THE 20S IN FALLON/CARTER COUNTIES WITH 30S OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWER 40S IN THE PARADISE VALLEY. RMS
AVIATION
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MONTANA
BRINGING GUSTY WINDS (30-40 KTS) TO AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS (KLVM, K3HT). THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BREEZY NW WINDS WILL
TRANSITION EAST FOR THURSDAY WITH GUSTS 25-35 KTS EXPECTED FOR
EASTERN MT. LLWS CAN BE EXPECTED TO SET IN THIS EVENING AFTER
SUNSET FOR KBIL AND KMLS. TS/LT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034/053 029/050 032/064 044/060 036/054 035/059 037/057
00/U 00/U 00/B 13/W 11/B 11/B 11/B
LVM 025/051 026/056 034/064 040/061 032/055 035/060 037/060
00/U 00/U 00/B 23/W 21/B 21/B 11/B
HDN 030/053 024/048 026/065 038/061 034/056 032/058 033/059
00/U 00/U 00/B 13/W 21/B 11/B 11/B
MLS 034/053 025/044 025/061 041/061 033/054 032/057 034/055
00/N 00/U 00/B 01/B 11/B 10/B 11/B
4BQ 035/051 026/043 025/060 040/061 036/054 035/057 035/058
00/U 00/B 00/B 01/B 00/B 10/B 10/B
BHK 029/050 022/040 019/057 036/060 030/054 029/056 030/053
00/N 00/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 10/B 10/B
SHR 027/050 022/048 024/065 037/063 030/055 032/060 032/059
00/U 00/U 00/B 12/W 10/B 11/B 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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