542
FXUS65 KBYZ 161728
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1028 AM MST SUN NOV 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WEATHER SYSTEM LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (20 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE).
- UNSETTLED AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS
WEEK.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS
OUR REGION WITH CLOUDS ENCROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SOME LOCAL
FOG WAS SHOWN ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR EAST INCLUDING THE BAKER
VICINITY. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. LOOK FOR CLOUDS
TO INCREASE WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
BEARTOOTHS LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 50S.
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRACK FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH WINDS
PICKING UP IN OUR SE SECTION IN RESPONSE (20-40 MPH GUSTS). THE
STORM TRACK IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
DEPICTED...AND GENERALLY MEANS THE BEST UPPER DYNAMIC FORCING WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR CWA. THAT SAID, WE WILL SEE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE WYOMING BORDER INTO MONTANA BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE MOUNTAINS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
(50-70%) WITH 1-3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ABOVE 7500 FT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE, BUT THERE IS A
HINT THAT SE MT (CARTER CO. AREA) MAY SEE A DECENT BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA DUE TO CONVERGENT FORCING IN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE LOW. RIDGING THEN QUICKLY TAKES OVER LATE
MONDAY NIGHT FOR CLEARING. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY TO BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN TO OUR
WEST WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AT MIDWEEK. THIS IS LIKELY
TO RESULT IN TEMPS COOLING DOWN TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMS (HIGHS
IN THE 40S) WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. IT DOES
NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR TO RESULT IN A BIG PRECIP EVENT FOR US, BUT
CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
YET..MAINLY DUE TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH VARIABILITY WITH THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE SPLIT WHICH CROSSES MONTANA. FOR NOW, WE
GENERALLY HAVE POPS 20-45% (HIGHEST IN THE MTNS) WITH A 15-30%
CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.10 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIP DURING THIS TIME.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ENSEMBLES SHOW LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
TO ZONAL FLOW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SEASONAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. THE ONLY IMPACT WEATHER MAY BE A WIND EPISODE IN THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. BT
AVIATION
18Z TAF DISCUSSION...PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS ARE DISSIPATING OVER
SE MONTANA LATE THIS MORNING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A DISTURBANCE
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY OVER WYOMING BUT SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. VCSH IS IN THE TAF FOR KLVM AND
KSHR. CEILINGS MAY DROP INTO THE 3-5KFT AGL RANGE NEAR
PRECIPITATION AREAS. FOG MAY MAKE AN APPEARANCE OVER SE MONTANA
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING INCLUDING KMLS AND KBHK.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FOG TO WORK UP RIVER VALLEYS AND INTO
THE KSHR AND KBIL VICINITY AROUND SUNRISE, BUT PROBABILITIES TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS JUST YET. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056 039/055 040/053 036/050 032/047 030/053 035/054
0/B 12/W 32/W 23/W 21/B 00/U 11/B
LVM 059 037/054 035/053 033/049 029/050 027/052 031/051
1/E 12/W 32/W 23/W 21/B 00/U 12/W
HDN 061 035/053 037/052 034/051 030/048 026/052 029/055
0/B 13/W 33/W 23/W 31/B 10/B 11/B
MLS 056 035/051 035/051 034/049 030/046 027/049 031/053
0/B 01/E 21/E 11/E 21/B 00/U 00/B
4BQ 060 038/051 038/051 036/051 032/045 028/051 031/052
0/B 03/W 21/E 12/W 21/B 00/B 01/B
BHK 055 032/047 032/050 031/049 028/045 023/048 027/051
0/B 02/W 21/E 11/E 21/B 00/U 00/B
SHR 059 034/052 035/053 031/050 027/047 025/052 026/053
0/B 14/W 43/W 13/W 31/B 10/B 01/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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