509
FXUS65 KBYZ 181438
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
738 AM MST TUE NOV 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS MAINLY 50S CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
- LOW (10 TO 20%) CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (MAINLY RAIN) THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, HIGHER CHANCE (30 TO 60%) OVER THE MOUNTAINS (SNOW).
- WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LIVINGSTON/BIG
TIMBER/HARLOWTON VICINITY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF NORTHERN WY IS PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR THE BIGHORNS/PRYORS AND OVER IN CARTER COUNTY AS
WELL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY INSIGNIFICANT,
BUT HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX/SKY ACCORDINGLY FROM NOW THRU EARLY
AFTERNOON. JKL
DISCUSSION
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOOK FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE
IF ANY PRECIPITATION OVERALL.
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...A WEAK IMPULSE RIDING UP UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS OUR REGION MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR
EASTERN PLAINS AND THE BIG HORNS/PRYORS TODAY THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS MAY TURN OUT TO BE LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED SPRINKLES
AT TIMES OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANYTHING
MEASURABLE IS ACROSS POWDER RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES LATE TODAY
INTO MID EVENING.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WEST WILL TRACK OVER OUR REGION AND BRING A
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS (ABV 6500 FT).
IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GENERATE MUCH PRECIP OVER OUR EASTERN SECTIONS
GIVEN THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...BUT FURTHER AWAY FROM MOUNTAINS WHERE
DOWNSLOPE HAS LESS INFLUENCE, WE MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING. AT ANY RATE, ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIGHT, EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING OR WEAK ZONAL
FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY,
EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY FRIDAY NIGHT WE MAY SEE GAP
WINDS INDUCED BY PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE PLAINS...AND MAY NEED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE USUAL GAP WIND AREAS (LIVINGSTON/NYE) INTO
THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT THE US-191 CORRIDOR LOOKS WINDY BUT NOT
ENOUGH FOR HIGHLITES. WILL KEEP TABS ON THIS THROUGH THE WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD FOR NEXT WEEK...MONDAY STILL LOOKS MOST DRY AND
SEASONALLY MILD, BUT ENSEMBLES LEND CONFIDENCE TO A NOTABLE COOL
DOWN TOWARD MIDWEEK AND THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AS BROAD
TROUGHINESS SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION AND OPENS THE DOOR TO COLDER
AIR SPILLING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. HIGHS COULD BE IN THE 30S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. MUCH GREATER UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES
AROUND PRECIPITATION, BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE, EVEN AT
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. BT
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 14Z...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. WHILE ALL SITES HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE (20-30%) OF
SEEING SHOWERS AT THE TERMINAL, THE SITES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE
INCLUDE KSHR/KMLS/KBHK. WHILE A BRIEF DIP DOWN TO MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS, VIS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. OTHER THEN
SOME 20KT WIND GUSTS AT KLVM THROUGH 15Z, WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. EXPECT PARTIAL TO FULL
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS WELL. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057 038/050 028/051 032/057 034/055 037/055 033/049
1/B 11/E 10/U 00/U 00/B 12/W 22/W
LVM 057 034/049 029/053 031/055 031/054 035/053 032/050
0/B 12/W 00/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 23/W
HDN 057 034/049 026/050 027/056 030/055 031/055 030/050
1/E 11/B 10/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 22/W
MLS 053 035/047 024/047 027/053 031/053 033/053 028/047
1/B 11/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 055 037/049 027/049 030/055 033/053 033/053 031/047
2/W 30/B 10/U 00/U 00/B 01/B 11/B
BHK 054 035/048 022/047 026/053 028/052 029/053 026/046
1/B 31/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 01/B 11/B
SHR 056 032/050 024/051 027/056 027/055 028/056 026/049
2/W 11/B 10/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 12/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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