768
FXUS65 KBYZ 191513
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
813 AM MST WED NOV 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS THIS WEEKEND; A PERIOD
OF STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
- COLDER TEMPS AND POSSIBLY LIGHT SNOW BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
(TUE/WED).
- WINTRY TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE FOR THANKSGIVING AND THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...MONITOR THE FORECAST!
UPDATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXIST OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR FROM BILLINGS TO MILES
CITY, AS AN UPPER TROF MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND COMBINES WITH A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT, A MESONET STATION AT HUNTLEY
MEASURED 0.05" IN THE PAST HOUR. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION ONGOING, AND ALAS JUDITH GAP IS SEEING NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 MPH AS OF 15Z. TEMPS IN NORTHERN WHEATLAND HAVE
FALLEN TO THE LOWER 30S AND THIS AT LEAST BEARS WATCHING AS WE MAY
SEE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOL ENOUGH TO MIX WITH WET SNOW ALONG THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS (PLACES LIKE MELVILLE, BOZEMAN PASS AND CANNOT
RULE OUT RED LODGE BY LATER TODAY). WE WILL SEE A BAND OF MODEST
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SAG SOUTHWARD THRU THE REGION TODAY, IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM TROF, AND THIS GIVES SOME CREDENCE FOR
KEEPING MENTION OF SHOWERS GOING THRU THE DAY. SOME MODELS DO NOT
SHOW THIS HAPPENING. IN ANY EVENT, HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX/WINDS A
BIT PER CURRENT CONDITIONS. HAVE ALSO ADDED MENTION OF FOG TONIGHT
AS PRECIP TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT. DEWPTS
CURRENTLY IN THE MID-UPPER 30S WILL BE CROSSED OVER BY SEVERAL
DEGREES TONIGHT (LOWS IN MID 20S TO AROUND 30F MOST PLACES). JKL
DISCUSSION
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. LOOK FOR MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND ASIDE FROM
SOME SHOWERS TODAY, LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION OVERALL.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A PACIFIC WAVE WILL TRACK OVER OUR REGION AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS (ABV
6500 FT). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, MAINLY WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING OR WEAK ZONAL
FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER OUR REGION. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY,
EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY FRIDAY NIGHT WE MAY SEE GAP WINDS
PICK UP AS PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS STRENGTHENS (GUSTS
35 TO 45 MPH)...AND MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE USUAL GAP
WIND AREAS (LIVINGSTON/NYE) BY LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS POINT THE US-191 CORRIDOR LOOKS BREEZY/WINDY, BUT NOT ENOUGH
FOR HIGHLITES. WILL KEEP TABS ON THIS THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 50S AND POSSIBLY SOME LOWER 60S BY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD FOR NEXT WEEK...CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF MODEL ENSEMBLES
INDICATE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PATTERN CHANGE OCCURRING AROUND
TUE/WED OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD INVOLVE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S. THIS
LOOKS TO EXTEND INTO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. MUCH GREATER
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AROUND PRECIPITATION, BUT SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE. HOLIDAY TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE A POSSIBILITY, SO
WE URGE PEOPLE TO KEEP TABS ON THE FORECAST. BT
AVIATION
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
GRADUALLY ENDING IN THE EVENING. EXPECT OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WITH THE SHOWERS. TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
LOCALIZED FOG IS POSSIBLE (20% CHANCE) NEAR ALL TAF SITES. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050 028/051 031/056 035/057 037/056 035/054 030/040
3/W 10/U 00/U 00/B 01/B 12/W 22/W
LVM 050 028/053 029/054 033/054 035/055 035/053 026/039
3/W 20/U 00/U 00/B 12/W 22/W 33/J
HDN 050 026/051 027/057 031/057 032/057 030/054 027/041
3/W 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 22/W 32/W
MLS 048 026/049 028/053 031/053 033/054 030/049 027/038
2/W 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 11/B 21/B
4BQ 050 027/051 031/055 034/054 033/055 032/053 028/039
2/W 00/U 00/U 00/B 01/B 11/B 11/B
BHK 050 023/049 026/054 030/052 030/052 028/050 023/037
2/W 00/U 00/U 00/B 01/B 11/B 21/B
SHR 051 026/051 027/055 027/055 028/056 029/056 023/039
2/W 10/B 00/U 00/B 01/B 11/B 22/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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