099
FXUS65 KBYZ 201539
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
839 AM MST THU NOV 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS THIS WEEKEND; A PERIOD
OF STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
- A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK (TUE/WED) WITH COLDER TEMPS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW.
- WINTRY TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE FOR HOLIDAY TRAVELERS NEXT
WEEKEND...MONITOR THE FORECAST!
UPDATE
AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING, UNDER A COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE BETWEEN NOW AND MIDDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD, THERE IS A RISK OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY EASTWARD, AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST TO ACCOMMODATE THIS. ONSET OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP
FOG AWAY FURTHER WEST. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE DRY TODAY WITH TEMPS
REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. JKL
DISCUSSION
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE MID
MORNING HOURS WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS CURRENTLY LESS THAN TWO
DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. OTHERWISE, LOOKING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 50S WEST TO MID 40S EAST. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT SO
PATCHY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY AGAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
A PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE
50S WILL THEN PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, AS WE REMAIN UNDER A
BROAD DRY ZONAL FLOW. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS BY FRIDAY EVENING (GUSTS 20-35 MPH). BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY, AND PERHAPS INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE
IN PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AHEAD OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH. THIS COULD SET
UP A BETTER PATTERN FOR GAP WINDS IN THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR 50+ MPH GUSTS FROM LIVINGSTON TO BIG
TIMBER AND HARLOWTON ARE 40-70% BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
A CANADIAN COLD FRONT, AND LIKELY THE COLDEST AIR YET OF THE FALL,
IS STILL PROGGED TO ARRIVE BY NEXT TUESDAY. HOWEVER, SNOWFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PUSH OF COLDER AIR REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN,
AS CONSENSUS KEEPS THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO OUR
NORTH. ENSEMBLES SHOW ONLY LIGHT LIQUID PRECIP TOTALS WHICH WOULD
TRANSLATE TO A DUSTING OF SNOW OVER THE PLAINS AT BEST IN THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY PERIOD. THERE IS A TREND FOR ANOTHER PUSH
PERHAPS WED NITE INTO THANKSGIVING DAY THAT IS HINTING AT A
POSSIBLE PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING (1-3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL?) OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE
DRIER SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS, ALONG
WITH A 15-30% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
ANY WINTRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE OBVIOUS IMPACTS ON
THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PLANS, SO PLEASE MONITOR THE FORECAST. BT
AVIATION
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL TRANSITION
TO FOG THROUGH THE MORNING. ALL TAF SITES HAVE ABOUT A 20% CHANCE
OF FOG THROUGH AROUND 17Z THIS MORNING. TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050 031/056 034/056 034/057 036/055 026/036 018/035
0/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 01/B 22/S 11/B
LVM 052 028/054 030/054 032/057 034/053 022/035 015/035
0/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 02/W 22/S 11/B
HDN 050 027/056 029/057 029/056 029/057 024/037 015/035
0/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 01/B 32/S 11/B
MLS 047 028/052 030/053 029/055 030/053 025/034 016/030
0/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 01/B 11/B 10/B
4BQ 048 029/054 032/054 031/056 031/055 026/033 016/030
0/B 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/B 11/B 10/B
BHK 047 026/053 028/052 027/055 029/053 022/033 012/030
0/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 01/B 11/N 10/B
SHR 049 026/055 026/056 027/057 029/057 020/033 011/033
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 33/S 21/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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