173
FXUS65 KBYZ 141022
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
322 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND MOSTLY DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
EXPECT RAPID SNOWMELT THIS COMING WEEK.
- PERIODS OF STRONG WIND FOR FOOTHILLS/GAP LOCATIONS INCLUDING
LIVINGSTON/NYE STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
WEDNESDAY.
- STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE US-191 CORRIDOR STARTING MONDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING. CHANCE OF EXTREME
CROSS WINDS (BIG TIMBER TO JUDITH GAP) WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE GREATEST IMPACT OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE WIND. THE IDAHO
FALLS TO LEWISTOWN PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES INTO THE 12-15 MB
RANGE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH 700 MB WINDS IN THE 30-35
KT RANGE. THIS GIVES LIVINGSTON A 50-50% CHANCE FOR GETTING A WIND
GUST OVER 60 MPH. THE THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS INCREASES THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY FOR GAP AREAS AND THE US-191 CORRIDOR FROM BIG
TIMBER TO HARLOWTON. THIS IS DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING INTO THE 15-19 MB RANGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND
700 MB WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 60-80 KT RANGE. LOCAL GUIDANCE IS
GIVING THE US-191 CORRIDOR A 50% CHANCE OF GETTING A WIND GUST
OVER 60 MPH AND LIVINGSTON A 40% CHANCE OF GETTING A GUST OVER 75
MPH.
TUESDAY WILL SEE 700 MB WINDS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASE UP
LEADING TO DECREASING WINDS. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
WINDS RAMP UP AGAIN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES TO NEAR 20
MB AND 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 65-85 KT RANGE. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST WINDS WITH BIG TIMBER AND
HARLOWTON HAVING 60% CHANCES FOR A WIND GUST OVER 60 MPH AND
LIVINGSTON HAVING A 95% CHANCE. ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF STRONG
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THOUGH THIS
POTENTIAL IS LESS CLEAR AT THIS TIME.
LOWER ELEVATIONS WON'T BE SPARED FROM STRONG WINDS EITHER AS A
POWERFUL CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND EXTREMELY HIGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH FROM YESTERDAY LEADING TO INCREASED 850
MB WINDS AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR STRONG WINDS. 850 MB WINDS ARE
NOW EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE WITH THE NBM GIVING THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE FOR A WIND GUST
OVER 50 MPH. PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE NBM
GIVING LOWER ELEVATIONS A 10-40% CHANCE OF GETTING GREATER THAN
0.1 INCHES.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S F ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THURSDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH THE
GREATEST TEMPERATURE DROP OCCURRING FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY AND
LOCATIONS TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR FRIDAY BEFORE
POSSIBLY DECREASING AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. TORGERSON
AVIATION
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS
(KLVM). WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING
AT KLVM. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS IN THE TAFS FOR KBIL/KSHR/KMLS
AT VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE AT KLVM AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS TO 50 KTS POSSIBLE. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045 029/045 037/048 035/050 024/040 030/048 025/039
0/B 00/U 01/B 16/O 11/B 24/O 42/S
LVM 054 035/055 042/054 039/050 025/041 031/049 028/040
0/N 00/N 01/N 29/O 12/S 56/O 52/S
HDN 043 020/044 033/049 031/051 018/038 026/048 023/038
0/U 00/U 01/B 17/O 11/B 24/O 53/S
MLS 039 024/041 034/044 029/046 013/029 020/043 016/031
0/U 00/U 00/B 24/O 20/B 12/O 31/B
4BQ 044 026/044 035/049 031/052 017/035 026/048 023/037
0/U 00/U 00/B 14/O 10/B 12/O 32/S
BHK 043 023/045 032/045 025/046 007/025 013/040 012/030
0/U 00/U 00/B 24/O 30/B 12/O 31/B
SHR 054 026/051 033/051 031/055 019/040 025/051 022/039
0/U 00/U 00/B 06/O 20/B 12/O 43/S
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 63-65-66-68-141-172-228.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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