560
FXUS65 KBYZ 152100
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
200 PM MST MON DEC 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND MOSTLY DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.
EXPECT CONTINUED RAPID SNOW MELT OVER THE PLAINS.
- PERIODS OF STRONG WIND FOR FOOTHILLS/GAP LOCATIONS INCLUDING
LIVINGSTON/NYE THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA WEDNESDAY.
- STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE US-191 CORRIDOR STARTING TONIGHT. CHANCE
OF EXTREME CROSS WINDS (BIG TIMBER TO JUDITH GAP) WEDNESDAY.
- SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS, GREATEST ON WEST
ASPECTS.
DISCUSSION
THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LIVINGSTON TO NYE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 55-65 MPH, INCREASING THIS
EVENING TO GUSTS OF 65-75 MPH. OVERNIGHT, GUSTS ALONG THE US-191
CORRIDOR WILL INCREASE TO 50-65 MPH. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.
WINDS BRIEFLY DECREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL WINDS
DECREASE. THEN, PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSING INTO THE REGION.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TOWARDS 18-20MB, WITH
700MB WINDS INCREASING TO 65-85 KTS. THIS SET-UP CURRENTLY APPEARS
SIMILAR TO THE RECENT EVENT THAT BROUGHT EXTREME GUSTS TO THE BIG
TIMBER AREA AND WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. CURRENTLY FOR
WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A 70-80% CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 60 MPH ALONG
THE US-191 CORRIDOR FROM BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON AND A 30-40%
CHANCE OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 70 MPH.
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
SPREAD THE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 40-60
MPH COMMON THROUGH THE EVENING. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THERE ARE
SIGNS FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG FOOTHILLS WINDS.
WEDNESDAY MORNING, A 40-70% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS
RAIN OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT REDUCES
TEMPERATURES AND CHANGES OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
OVER THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS, THERE IS A 70% CHANCE OF
AT LEAST 6" OF SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A PUSH
OF MOISTURE. THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT DETAILS,
BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY A 60% CHANCE OF 12" OF SNOW OVER THE
ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THEN, BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, HIGHS WILL DROP INTO MOSTLY 30S AND
40S FOR THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM BRIEFLY FRIDAY BACK INTO THE
40S AND 50S BEFORE AGAIN DECREASING TO 30S AND 40S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ARCHER
AVIATION
MAIN AVIATION HAZARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS WIND, WHICH WILL
BE STRONGEST ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS. AT KLVM, GUSTS OF 50-55
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO 60-65 KNOTS TONIGHT. FROM
K6S0 TO KHWQ, GUSTS OF 35-45 KNOTS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 50-55
KNOTS TONIGHT. FURTHER EAST AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF LLWS, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, IMPACTING
KBIL, KSHR, KMLS & KBHK. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, THEN DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER A MORNING COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHER THAN WIND, WIDESPREAD VFR WILL PERSIST,
THOUGH MOUNTAINS MAY BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN PERIODIC LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/047 035/050 024/040 033/052 025/040 023/039 023/039
11/N 06/W 01/B 24/W 43/J 22/J 22/W
LVM 040/052 040/051 025/043 034/051 026/040 021/042 028/045
12/N 19/W 03/J 56/W 53/J 22/J 33/W
HDN 033/046 030/051 019/039 030/052 024/039 020/039 020/038
21/E 16/W 10/B 24/W 53/J 32/J 22/W
MLS 032/042 028/045 013/032 026/045 020/035 020/036 017/033
10/B 13/W 10/B 33/W 31/B 21/B 21/E
4BQ 035/047 031/052 018/036 030/050 025/038 024/040 023/040
10/B 13/W 10/B 13/W 42/J 21/B 11/B
BHK 032/042 025/044 006/026 017/042 014/030 015/034 014/032
10/N 14/W 30/B 23/W 31/B 21/B 11/E
SHR 033/051 029/057 018/039 027/055 024/038 019/041 021/044
21/B 06/W 20/B 03/W 43/J 21/B 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM
MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES 63-68-141-172-228.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ZONES 65-66.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...NONE.
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