122
FXUS65 KBYZ 191105
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
405 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY COULD BRING STRONG, ERRATIC, AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
THROUGH THIS MORNING.
- STRONG GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH
THIS MORNING.
- LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN FAR EASTERN
MONTANA THROUGH THIS MORNING (20-40 PERCENT CHANCE).
- COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ENDS STRONG WIND THREAT
AND BRINGS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION (RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW)
THROUGH THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE FOOTHILLS
EXPECTED. IMPACTS TO FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE POSSIBLE.
- PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER THE ABSAROKA-
BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS INTO SATURDAY. GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET OF
SNOW FORECAST, GREATEST ON SOUTH AND WEST ASPECTS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. STRONG
WINDS HAVE SPREAD OUT ONTO THE FOOTHILLS OVERNIGHT, WITH MOUNTAIN
WAVE INDUCED WINDS FOR AREAS IMMEDIATE TO THE MOUNTAINS. LATEST
IDA-LWT GRADIENT IS SITTING AT 20MB, WITH 700MB WINDS PROGGED AT
50-70KT. WINDS HAVE GUSTED INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 MPH NEAR
LIVINGSTON, WITH 50S TO 60S ELSEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
PERSONAL WEATHER STATIONS NEAR RED LODGE AND DAYTON HAVE REPORTED
WIND GUSTS INTO THE LOW 60S MPH, AND RECENTLY THE POMPEY CREEK DOT
STATION ON I-90 OVER SOUTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY REPORTED A GUST TO
70 MPH. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH
GUSTY WINDS SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AREAS (30-45 MPH). A WARM FRONT
LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA HAS BROUGHT THE THREAT FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR EASTERN MONTANA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IS GREATEST OVER FALLON COUNTY, WHERE WE
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
MORNING.
A COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL END THE STRONG WIND THREAT ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL
BRING A BAND OF RAIN/SNOW TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW THROUGH THE
AREA. WHILE THIS BAND LOOKS TO BE PRETTY FAST MOVING, IMPACTS TO
THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALLOW OR A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BRING BLOWING SNOW AS WELL, WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY FURTHER. AS
FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GO, MOST OF THE AREA WILL ONLY SEE A
DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW. HOWEVER, THE FOOTHILLS
ALONG THE BEARTOOTH FRONT (INCLUDING RED LODGE), AND THE FOOTHILLS
OF THE BIGHORNS/PRYORS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. HAVE ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BEARTOOTH/RED LODGE FOOTHILLS
AND THE FOOTHILLS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BIGHORNS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
OVER THE ABSAROKA-BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS A STEADY STREAM OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY. THE WINTER
STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING REMAINS IN
GOOD SHAPE AS 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW, MAINLY ON WEST AND SOUTH
FACING SLOPES, IS FORECAST. WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 75 MPH COULD
ALSO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS.
COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. PACIFIC
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO THE REGION AT TIMES
BRINGING PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL TO THE WESTERN ASPECTS.
INCREASED WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE FOOTHILLS AT TIMES. STP
AVIATION
09Z DISCUSSION...
A MOUNTAIN WAVE SETUP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
KSHR/KRED SHOULD EXPECT ERRATIC AND POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS
THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z THIS MORNING. WINDS MAY VARY BY OVER 40KTS
OVER EXTREMELY SHORT DISTANCES AND ALTITUDE. IN ADDITION TO THE
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY, LLWS SHOULD BE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
OVERNIGHT; INCLUDING KBIL THROUGH 16Z. BREEZY SW WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY.
THE OTHER MAIN HAZARD THIS MORNING IS THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
(30%) THAT KMLS/KBHK MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED -FZRA BETWEEN 09-15Z.
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO MVFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH AN AREA OF SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS. THERE EXISTS A SLIGHT
CHANCE (30%) THAT SHRASN MAY OCCUR AT KBIL BETWEEN 20-01Z, BUT THE
GREATER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ADJACENT TO THE MOUNTAINS AT
KSHR/KLVM WHERE IFR VIS MAY PREVAIL AFTER 00Z AT KSHR.
MOUNTAIN WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AMD NOT SKED AT
KLVM DUE TO AN ASOS POWER OUTAGE. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057 027/042 026/041 032/054 031/048 031/054 029/048
6/S 50/U 01/E 12/R 21/E 01/B 11/B
LVM 051 021/036 021/042 033/050 032/050 036/051 031/049
9/O 60/U 02/O 45/O 32/R 13/R 32/O
HDN 057 023/041 020/041 028/053 029/047 028/054 025/047
6/R 70/U 00/B 12/R 10/B 01/B 11/B
MLS 047 017/034 018/037 026/046 026/043 026/046 024/040
4/O 20/U 00/B 01/E 10/E 00/B 11/B
4BQ 055 024/038 021/041 029/053 029/049 031/056 029/047
3/R 80/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 11/B
BHK 050 014/030 015/041 023/046 023/043 023/049 024/040
5/O 30/U 00/B 00/E 10/E 00/B 10/B
SHR 058 017/038 015/041 026/052 027/050 030/056 026/049
3/N 81/U 00/B 01/B 00/B 00/B 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS
MORNING FOR ZONE 33.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ZONES 56-65-66-138-141-169-171-172.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR ZONES 56-66.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ZONES 63-228.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR
ZONE 67.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR ZONE 138.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ZONES 198-199.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR ZONE 199.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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