541
FXUS65 KBYZ 230926
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
226 AM MST TUE DEC 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING A SHOT OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE AREA
CHRISTMAS DAY, BUT NO BIG STORMS EXPECTED.
- COOLER AND CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC IS SLIDING NORTH OF OUR
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BRING ANY MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW TO AN END IN THE BEARTOOTHS. THUS, THE WINTER STORM WARNING
EXPIRATION AT 500 AM LOOKS GOOD...WITH JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW
OCCURRING THERE-AFTER.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH ITS AXIS ANCHORED OVER THE MIDDLE CONUS
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE
PARADISE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND MAY PRODUCE SOME
ELEVATED WINDS IN THE GAP FLOW LOCATIONS (LIVINGSTON/NYE), BUT
CURRENTLY DOES NOT LOOK TO WARRANT ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS (CHC OF
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH 45%). HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 40S TO
MID 50S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT PACIFIC MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO RETURN TO OUR
ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH RANGES RIDING SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE MID LEVELS.
MODELS AGREE AN ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL ALSO TRACK OVER OUR
AREA THURSDAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT GETS PULLED SOUTH INTO EAST
CENTRAL MONTANA. SO ALONG WITH HIGH COUNTRY SNOW (3-6 INS) WE MAY
SEE A QUICK SHOT OF SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TRACK ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
RANGING FROM 50S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH LOCATIONS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS A
10-30% CHANCE FOR GETTING GREATER THAN 0.10 INCHES, AND LESS THAN
10% CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF OROGRAPHIC
SNOWFALL TO THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
CURRENTLY, THIS LOOKS TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. THE CHANCE
FOR GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL THU-SAT IS AROUND 70% FOR
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH OF COOKE CITY.
MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN
MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING AN AGGRESSIVE SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH HIGHS
15-20 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S WEST TO
MID 20S EAST. WHILE THIS CURRENTLY DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG
PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR OUR AREA (CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 0.1
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS BELOW 20%), THERE ARE SOME
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SO THIS WARRANTS MONITORING AS IT
COULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BT
AVIATION
09Z DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE KLVM WHICH
MAY ALLOW A STRAY SHRASN TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE, ALL
SITES SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE DAY TODAY. AFTER 00Z, KLVM
WILL SEE WIND GUSTS OD 20-30KTS OUT OF THE SW WHILE ALL OTHER
SITES CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT WINDS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE PARTIALLY TO
FULLY OBSCURED THROUGH 00Z. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047 034/052 035/053 034/053 023/036 017/042 026/049
0/E 00/B 12/W 01/B 23/J 00/B 00/B
LVM 051 038/054 041/054 036/048 028/038 022/043 027/049
2/J 10/B 54/W 23/W 22/J 00/B 00/B
HDN 046 029/051 030/049 029/052 020/034 011/039 020/046
0/E 00/B 02/W 01/B 23/J 10/B 00/U
MLS 042 027/040 027/041 025/045 015/026 006/029 017/041
0/E 00/B 01/E 01/B 22/J 00/B 00/B
4BQ 048 031/052 036/052 031/054 021/034 011/034 019/045
0/E 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/J 10/B 00/U
BHK 043 024/045 026/046 024/048 015/026 000/025 011/040
0/E 00/B 01/E 11/B 22/J 00/U 00/U
SHR 049 031/055 034/057 030/053 021/036 012/041 020/050
0/E 00/B 02/W 01/B 23/J 10/B 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR ZONE 67.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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