665
FXUS65 KBYZ 241552
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
852 AM MST WED DEC 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING A SHOT OF RAIN/SNOW CHRISTMAS DAY, BUT
NO BIG STORMS OR IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- COLDER WITH CHANCE FOR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CHANCE
FOR STRONG WINDS AND POTENTIAL TRAVEL HAZARDS FOR THIS PERIOD.
- PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPDATE
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND FLAT
RIDGING OVER OUR REGION, DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEP AND MOIST TROF ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST. OVER TIME TODAY, AND ESPECIALLY BY EVENING, THE
MOISTENING SW FLOW WILL BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW TO THE BEARTOOTH
ABSAROKAS, WITH 1-3" ON SW ASPECTS ABOVE 7.5KFT THRU TONIGHT.
TODAY'S WEATHER WILL BE QUIET OTHERWISE BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE
MINOR ITEMS TO WORK OUT. THERE IS AN AREA OF FOG/STRATUS IN
NORTHEAST MT ADVECTING SOUTHWESTWARD AND APPROACHING MILES CITY,
AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WE ARE ALSO SEEING EASTERLY
WINDS AT BIG TIMBER AND SPRINGDALE, THOUGH THIS IS NOT TIED TO A
DISTINCT BACKDOOR FRONT IT IS INDICATIVE OF THE SLACKENED
DOWNSLOPE GRADIENTS. HAVE MADE SOME FOG/SKY ADJUSTMENTS FOR OUR
NORTHEAST AND BROUGHT EAST WINDS INTO LIVINGSTON BY MIDDAY. HAVE
ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AFTER WHAT WAS A VERY WARM
NIGHT. LIVINGSTON'S CURRENT TEMP OF 52F IS ONLY 3F FROM A DAILY
RECORD HIGH. JKL
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT, MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS OF
THE EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER, WARMER AIR AND WESTERLY FLOW WAS
DOMINANT IN THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S. WE
EXPECT TO SEE THE WARMER AIR AND DOWNSLOPE SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL ZONES BY LATE TONIGHT/MORNING ERODING THE FOG FOR ALL BUT
THE MOST EASTERN RIVER VALLEYS. ANY LINGERING FOG SHOULD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. OROGRAPHIC SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH RANGES LATE
TONIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AS A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK
COLD FRONT TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE A QUICK SHOT
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
IN THE FOOTHILLS (20-40% CHC) FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. NOTABLE IMPACTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GETTING GREATER THAN
0.1 INCHES OF LIQUID. TEMPS CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH 40S TO MID
50S EXPECTED.
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY WILL PERSIST
AND PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE WEST FACING SLOPES
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY PILE UP THE SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY. TOTALS FROM 6 TO
12 INCHES WILL BE COMMON WITH A 50% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 12
INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE 72 HOUR PERIOD OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MONTANA/CANADIAN
BORDER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS OF EASTERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL DROP
DOWN TO WHAT IS TYPICALLY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE
30S. STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
SPREAD A BAND OF SNOW SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE DAY. IT
COULD BE A RATHER INTENSE BAND OF PRECIPITATION, BUT WILL BE A
PRETTY QUICK SHOT AND IS NOT LIKELY TO AMOUNT TO MUCH
ACCUMULATION IF ANY OVER THE PLAINS. MODELS DO SHOW IT HANGS UP
OVER THE NORTH FACING FOOTHILLS OF THE BEARTOOTHS AND BIG HORNS
LATE IN THE DAY SUPPORTED BY DECENT UPSLOPE. OUR CURRENT FORECAST
HAS LESS THAN AN INCH ACCUMULATION IN SOUTHERN BIG HORN COUNTY
AND IN THE RED LODGE FOOTHILLS, WITH ONLY A 10-20% CHANCE OF AN
INCH OR MORE. HOWEVER, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH TRENDS HERE AS WE
CANNOT RULE OUT AN INCH OR TWO OF QUICK ACCUMULATION AFFECTING
US-212 NEAR RED LODGE, AND NEAR FORT SMITH NEAR THE BIGHORNS. IN
ADDITION, PATTERN RECOGNITION SUGGEST STRONG WIND POTENTIAL FOR
THE PLAINS SATURDAY. PARTICULARLY OVER THE MT/DAKOTAS BORDER WITH
NW GUSTS 30-45 MPH POSSIBLE. PRE-FRONTAL WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUSTS
45-55 MPH IN THE GAP AREAS OF THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY AS WELL.
THE COLDER AIR MASS WILL SIT OVER US SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM UPPER 30S WEST TO UPPER TEENS ALONG THE DAKOTAS BORDER.
ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY, PUSHING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
40S AND 50S FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. BT
AVIATION
PATCHY FOG IS IN THE VICINITY OF KMLS AS OF 1545Z. BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO IFR ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS. MATOS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049 035/054 036/055 028/037 011/035 023/046 031/050
0/B 12/R 01/B 13/S 00/B 00/B 01/B
LVM 055 040/053 035/049 027/035 015/037 024/046 029/049
0/N 55/R 24/O 23/S 00/B 00/B 01/B
HDN 049 030/050 031/055 025/039 007/031 017/045 027/048
0/U 11/B 00/B 14/O 10/U 00/U 01/B
MLS 038 027/042 028/049 020/033 002/020 010/038 025/043
0/B 01/E 00/B 11/B 00/U 00/B 02/O
4BQ 052 036/053 033/054 028/039 007/025 015/043 028/046
0/U 00/E 00/U 01/B 10/U 00/B 01/B
BHK 043 025/047 026/051 021/033 903/017 005/037 020/040
0/U 00/B 00/U 11/N 10/U 00/B 02/O
SHR 056 032/054 029/054 025/037 006/032 015/046 025/050
0/B 12/R 01/B 13/S 10/U 00/U 01/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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