823
FXUS65 KBYZ 251546
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
846 AM MST THU DEC 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
ROSEBUD & CUSTER COUNTIES.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY; SOME DAILY RECORDS MAY
BE BROKEN TODAY.
- CANADIAN COLD FRONT BRINGS A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW AND COLDER TEMPS
FOR THE WEEKEND. TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY BE IMPACTED BY POOR
VISIBILITY AND SLICK ROADS, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS.
- PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
- FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS WARM AND DRY.
UPDATE
AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR THE BIGHORNS/PRYORS
TOWARD MILES CITY AS OF 1530Z, IN RRQ OF 100KT H3 JET MAX LIFTING
THRU EASTERN MT IN SW FLOW ALOFT, WITH SOME MID LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY. HAVE EXPANDED POPS A BIT TO COVER THIS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. POCKETS OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPS (30F AT
BOTH HARDIN AND MILES CITY) COULD YIELD BRIEF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN,
BUT THE LOWER AIR MASS ITSELF IS VERY MILD AND WOULD EXPECT ANY
MEANINGFUL PRECIP TO PUSH TEMPS UP TO THE 40S. OTHERWISE, IT WAS A
VERY MILD NIGHT WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY STILL IMPACTING THE
EAST SIDE OF THE BIGHORNS. SHERIDAN IS GUSTING TO ~40 MPH BUT THIS
SHOULD END WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS A WEAK PACIFIC COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. REGARDING FOG, THERE REMAINS AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY AT FORSYTH, ROCK SPRINGS AND NEAR MILES CITY. THIS
SHOULD ALSO SCOUR OUT SOON W/ THE WIND SHIFT/FROPA. LOOKS LIKE FOG
MAY SPREAD BACK INTO OUR FAR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
BY THE WAY, SHERIDAN JUMPED TO A REMARKABLE 68F AT 316AM, COURTESY
OF THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND VERY MILD MID LEVELS (STILL +4C AT
700MB). THIS ALREADY BREAKS ITS CHRISTMAS RECORD, PREVIOUSLY 61F
IN 1947.
JKL
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN RIVER VALLEYS OVERNIGHT, BUT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES
EAST SOME OF THE FOG HAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY LIFTED. STILL MAY BE
SOME LINGERING FOG AT SUNRISE AS FAR WEST AS YELLOWSTONE
COUNTY...BUT FEEL THE PRESSURE PATTERNS AND WIND FIELDS SUGGEST IT
WILL NOT BE AS STUBBORN AS YESTERDAY, AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
MORNING.
A WEAK PACIFIC FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD SPREAD SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY AND PERHAPS FRIDAY, BUT THESE WILL
BE INSIGNIFICANT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
READINGS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S. WE EXPECT NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS THIS CHRISTMAS DAY. DAILY RECORDS AT LIVINGSTON
(56F IN 2005), BILLINGS (56F IN 2005) AND SHERIDAN (61 IN 1947)
WILL BE CHALLENGED. AT THE VERY LEAST, THIS WILL BE ONE OF THE
WARMEST CHRISTMASES WE HAVE SEEN IN OUR PERIOD OF RECORD.
MOIST PACIFIC FLOW VEERING FROM SW TO W WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY. MOST OF THIS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER WEST FACING
SLOPES AROUND COOKE CITY WHERE WE ARE LOOKING AT 10-16" OF SNOW
(60% CHANCE OF 12+ INCHES) OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF PREFRONTAL ENHANCED SW-W WINDS ALONG
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE RISK OF
50+ MPH GUSTS IS ~60% AT LIVINGSTON, AND 20-40% AT BIG TIMBER AND
HARLOWTON.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
DIGGING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. DESPITE A WIDE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL
QPF OVER THE REGION, THE LATEST PROBABILITIES FOR 1+ INCHES OF
SNOW HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY UPWARD AND RANGE FROM 20% AT BILLINGS
TO 70% ALONG THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS WHERE A DECENT BRIEF PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE IS DEPICTED ON CROSS SECTIONS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE RED LODGE GET A QUICK 1-3 INCHES. AREAS TO THE NORTH AND
EAST MAY NOT SEE MUCH PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN PUSH OF COLDER AIR
IS CURRENTLY PROGGED FOR MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH
JUST A BIT OF SNOW SATURDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, RAPIDLY
FALLING TEMPS COULD RESULT IN ICY ROADS FOR LATTER PART OF DAY
INTO THE EVENING. WE ARE CONFIDENTLY LOOKING AT A SHARP COOL DOWN
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY LOWS RANGING FROM NEAR 5
BELOW IN THE EAST TO LOW-MID TEENS WEST SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND
CHILLS MAY REACH 20 BELOW IN OUR EAST AS POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS
WILL BE BRISK. CHILLY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY BEFORE
WARMER WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS TO THE
TIMING WHICH MAY HOLD OFF INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THOSE IN HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES TRAVELING IN SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL WANT TO
MONITOR FORECASTS.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF ENSEMBLES SUGGEST HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE
NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH A BROAD NORTHERN ROCKIES RIDGE MONDAY TO
WEDNESDAY. SO, LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
(HIGHS IN 40S TO LOWER 50S) AS WE APPROACH THE NEW YEAR. BT
AVIATION
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FOR EAST CENTRAL MT (FROM
K1S3 TO KMLS) THROUGH 15Z. WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT
THE BIGHORN FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS EXPECTED AT KSHR. FOG IS LIKELY TO SET IN AGAIN
THIS EVENING AFTER 0Z FOR EAST CENTRAL MT. OVERNIGHT, THERE IS
ABOUT A 30% CHANCE FOR VISIBILITIES TO GET TO 1SM OR LESS AT KMLS.
TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058 037/056 031/039 008/030 018/042 029/047 027/043
0/B 00/B 05/S 20/U 00/B 00/B 11/B
LVM 056 038/050 027/036 010/030 018/041 028/047 030/048
1/N 14/R 37/S 20/B 00/B 00/B 11/B
HDN 057 032/055 029/039 004/025 012/042 026/046 023/041
2/W 10/B 05/O 30/U 00/B 01/B 11/B
MLS 048 029/050 026/035 001/016 005/038 024/044 021/036
1/B 00/B 02/S 20/U 00/U 01/B 21/B
4BQ 061 034/056 031/042 005/019 009/040 026/045 023/039
2/W 00/B 02/S 30/U 00/U 01/B 11/B
BHK 053 028/054 026/035 903/010 000/035 020/041 015/033
1/E 00/B 01/N 20/N 00/U 01/B 21/B
SHR 062 030/054 026/040 002/025 009/042 022/047 023/047
2/W 01/B 14/S 40/U 00/U 00/B 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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