137
FXUS65 KBYZ 261006
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
306 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- CANADIAN COLD FRONT BRINGS A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW AND COLDER TEMPS
FOR THE WEEKEND. TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY BE IMPACTED BY POOR
VISIBILITY AND SLICK ROADS, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE FOOTHILLS.
- PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
- FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS WARM AND DRY, WITH GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THANKS TO PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW. THE AIR MASS SHOULDN'T BE QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F, AND RECORDS FOR DEC 26 ARE HIGHER
AND TOUGHER TO REACH.
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OVER THE OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED SW-W ASPECTS OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS THROUGH SATURDAY.
LOOK FOR ANOTHER 10-18" OF SNOW (60% CHANCE OF A FOOT OR MORE),
WHICH MAY CAUSE AN INCREASE IN AVALANCHE DANGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
AROUND COOKE CITY. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR BRIEF INSIGNIFICANT
SHOWERS.
AHEAD OF SATURDAYS APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM WE EXPECT TO SEE
AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS.
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE PARADISE VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS IS
PROGGED TO REACH ~11MB TODAY WITH 700MB WINDS 35-45 KTS. WHILE
SOUNDINGS HINT AT OCCASIONAL MIX DOWN WINDS GUSTING OVER 50 MPH
(85% CHC) AT THE GAP LOCATIONS (LIVINGSTON/NYE), UNSEASONABLY
WARM ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR STRONG GAP FLOW. THUS, WE WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. A SLIGHT EASTWARD
SHIFT IN THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROF WILL BRING 35-45 MPH GUSTS TO
THE US-191 CORRIDOR FROM BIG TIMBER THRU HARLOWTON LATE TODAY, AND
POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WE WILL SEE A STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT ARRIVE SATURDAY, EARLY
IN THE NORTH, BY 19Z AT BILLINGS/MILES CITY AND 21Z AT SHERIDAN.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SHARPER WITH A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROF,
SO THERE SHOULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR BRIEF SNOW AS A BAROCLINIC
ZONE SAGS NORTH TO SOUTH THRU THE REGION, WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. MAKE NO MISTAKE THIS IS
NOT A STRONG SYSTEM AND OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE 1-3" ALONG
THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS, BUT WITH RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPS THRU THE
DAY THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE THAT SOME ROADS WILL GO FROM WET
TO ICY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAY INCLUDE
BILLINGS, BUT IS MORE LIKELY AT PLACES LIKE RED LODGE AND
SHERIDAN. SOMETHING TO MONITOR IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS ON
SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF OVER AN INCH OF SNOW IS 15% AT
BILLINGS AND 35-55% ALONG THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS. TIME PERIOD TO
WATCH FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS SATURDAY MORNING TO MID EVENING. A
MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY,
LOOK FOR BRISK POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS AND SUB- ZERO WIND CHILLS
EAST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 20S WEST TO SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE
MT/DAKOTA BORDERS.
WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
ROCKIES CAUSING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
WITH WESTERLY FLOW PUSHING OUT THE COLD AIR. DOWNSLOPE WARMING
CONTINUES FROM THERE THRU MIDWEEK AS RIDGING REMAINS ENTRENCHED
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS IN
40S TO LOWER 50S). ENSEMBLES DO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY (40% CHC)
OF A POTENTIAL BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY,
WHICH COULD HOLD INTO THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THIS BACK
DOOR COLD AIR IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY UPWARD AND IF IT OCCURS COULD
LEAD TO SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOW ALONG W/ MUCH COLDER TEMPS
THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING. BT
AVIATION
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN AND OUT OF KMLS AND KBHK THROUGH THE
MORNING, GRADUALLY CLEARLY BY AROUND 15Z. THERE IS ABOUT A 40%
CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS SAME TIME AT KMLS. GUSTY
SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AT KLVM WITH GUSTS 30-45
KTS LIKELY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE PERIODICALLY OBSCURED DUE TO
SNOWFALL. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TODAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES THROUGH. TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056 031/038 007/027 016/040 028/046 028/042 022/034
0/U 06/S 30/U 00/B 00/B 01/E 11/B
LVM 049 026/037 008/028 015/039 025/044 029/047 026/043
3/O 38/S 20/U 00/U 00/E 01/E 11/B
HDN 057 029/040 004/022 009/039 022/045 023/042 019/035
0/B 06/O 30/U 00/U 00/B 11/E 11/B
MLS 050 026/035 000/013 003/035 023/042 022/033 013/027
0/B 02/S 20/U 00/B 00/B 12/O 11/B
4BQ 055 032/045 004/015 007/038 024/044 025/039 018/034
0/B 01/N 30/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 10/B
BHK 053 026/038 903/008 902/032 018/040 018/031 006/022
0/B 01/N 20/N 00/B 00/B 22/O 21/B
SHR 055 028/045 001/023 008/041 020/046 024/046 021/042
1/U 15/S 50/U 00/U 00/B 01/B 10/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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