230
FXUS65 KBYZ 270203
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
703 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS SOUTH AND WEST OF BILLINGS INTO
SATURDAY.
- QUICK SHOT OF SNOW FOR THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED, MAINLY SOUTH OF
US14.
- STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW AND MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES, SATURDAY. TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY BE IMPACTED BY
POOR VISIBILITY AND SLICK ROADS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS.
- PERSISTENT ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
- FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS WARM AND DRY, WITH PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.
UPDATE
MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A JET MAX OVERHEAD,
SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTH, WERE BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING, WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE IMMEDIATE
BIGHORN FOOTHILLS. A QUICK FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE BIGHORNS, WITH THE GREATEST TOTALS SOUTH OF
BURGESS JUNCTION AND US14. MID-LEVEL WINDS PERPENDICULAR TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESCENT WERE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO THE RED LODGE
AND BIGHORN FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH.
STRONGEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS, TAPERING OFF SOME OVERNIGHT. EXPECT GAP WINDS TO
INCREASE FOR LIVINGSTON TO NYE AND BIG TIMBER OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. WIND GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS, WIND AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. AN UPDATED
AVIATION DISCUSSION IS BELOW. STP
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 230PM,
HAVING JUST COME THROUGH BILLINGS. THIS IS BRINGING GUSTY WEST
WINDS OF 30-45 MPH, WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE LOW 50S AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT, WITH SATURDAY HIGHS
LIKELY OCCURRING TONIGHT, FOR WEST- CENTRAL ZONES. ALONG WITH THIS
WEAK FRONT, VIRGA AND A FEW WEAK SHOWERS HAVE BROUGHT SOME TRACE
PRECIP TO THE WEST.
OVERALL, STREAM OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS IS BRINGING ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW,
ESPECIALLY ON SW-W ASPECTS OF THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTHS, THROUGH
SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-12 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST. RECREATION IN THE BACKCOUNTRY MAY BE
DIFFICULT AND AVALANCHE DANGER MAY INCREASE FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AROUND COOKE CITY. MUCH LESS SNOWFALL IS FORECAST ON NORTH AND
EAST FACING ASPECTS, INCLUDING RED LODGE.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BEARTOOTH/RED
LODGE FOOTHILLS, BEGINNING 8AM SATURDAY AND ENDING AT 11PM
SATURDAY EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE RANGE OF 1-4
INCHES ARE FORECAST, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. BE
PREPARED FOR SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS.
A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GAPS IS BRINGING WIND
GUSTS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S MPH. THE CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS IS LESS THAN 50%, ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN GUSTS INTO THE
MID 50S WITH THE FRONT. THIS WILL BE WORTH MONITORING OVERNIGHT,
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY ALONG WITH 700MB
WINDS. ALONG THE US-191 CORRIDOR FROM BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON,
WIND GUSTS IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE ARE FORECAST, THIS TOO WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS TO THE W-E AHEAD
OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT TOMORROW. ADDITIONALLY, THE HREF IS
DEPICTING SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS SPILLING INTO THE BEARTOOTH/RED
LODGE FOOTHILLS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOW 50S MPH. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO NUDGE
VALUES TOWARDS THIS HOWEVER, AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS, THE
INVERSION OVER TOWN SEEMS TO BE PRETTY STRONG AND KEEPS THOSE
HIGHER GUSTS FROM COMING DOWN THE MOUNTAIN. FOR NOW, GUSTS IN THE
30S TO LOW 40S ARE FORECAST.
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AN UPPER TROUGH AND
STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING, MAKING IT INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY BUT NOT STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S AND 30S MPH. ALONG WITH THE
WIND GUSTS, SNOW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE
FAR EAST WILL SEE MUCH LESS ACCUMULATIONS. THE CHANCE FOR AN INCH
OR MORE OF SNOWFALL IS GREATEST IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES
(NOT INCLUDING THE AFOREMENTIONED FOOTHILLS), BETWEEN 30-75%. THE
HIGHEST CHANCE IS IN SOUTHERN BIG HORN AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES,
WHEREAS LOCATIONS SUCH AS BILLINGS ARE CLOSER TO 30-40%.
THE FRONT WILL BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY, WITH SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO (SUB-ZEROS IN THE FAR EAST). WIND CHILL
VALUES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS TO 25 BELOW
ZERO INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THESE VALUES MAY APPROACH COLD WEATHER
CRITERIA. THOSE GOING OUTDOORS SHOULD BE PROPERLY DRESSED FOR THE
COLD AND LIMIT EXPOSURE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO IN THE EAST, TO 20S AND AROUND 30F IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO REBUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH
LEE SIDE RIDING OVER MONTANA. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY W-NW FLOW AND
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY COME INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME, THOUGH SOME OVER RUNNING IS
POSSIBLE IN THIS PATTERN, AS WNW FLOW CONTINUES TO STREAM PACIFIC
MOISTURE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS. THE FRONT WOULD ALSO BRING MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST (30S AND LOW
40S MONDAY, AND MAINLY 40S TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY).
MATOS
AVIATION
SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS LEADING TO MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FOOTHILLS WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS INTO THE 40S AND 50S MPH THIS EVENING INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BEGIN TO ENTER K3HT
IN THE 15-18Z TIMEFRAME SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION BY 00Z. THIS
WILL SPREAD GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS
INTO THE 30S MPH. LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT
BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. TORGERSON/STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 031/036 008/028 016/040 029/046 029/044 018/038 022/042
05/J 10/U 00/U 00/B 01/B 10/B 02/J
LVM 027/033 009/028 016/039 027/044 028/047 026/046 027/048
26/J 10/U 00/U 00/B 01/B 00/B 13/W
HDN 031/037 004/021 009/040 023/045 023/039 014/037 019/040
15/J 20/U 00/U 00/B 02/W 11/B 12/W
MLS 028/035 002/012 003/035 023/042 018/030 008/028 014/033
02/J 10/U 00/U 00/B 12/J 10/B 01/E
4BQ 033/043 005/015 006/038 025/044 024/038 014/035 019/039
12/J 20/U 00/U 00/E 12/J 10/B 01/E
BHK 027/041 903/007 904/031 018/040 016/029 004/025 011/031
12/N 20/N 00/U 00/B 23/J 10/B 11/E
SHR 028/041 002/023 008/041 021/046 024/046 019/044 021/045
24/J 40/U 00/U 00/E 01/B 00/B 01/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM MST
SATURDAY FOR ZONES 56-66.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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